Is Iran the next North Korea? How Tehran’s isolation may deepen due to war with Israel

For years, Iran had remained one of the two powerhouses of West Asia despite being piled with sanctions over its nuclear programme. A network of allies across the world and proxies in the region were central in achieving the feat. But that changed last week.

Over the past six days, Israel has reduced Iran to a mere shadow of its former self — its military leadership is largely dead, scores of military sites have been destroyed, critical infrastructure has been hammered, and air defence systems have essentially been neutralised.

As neither its allies, Russia and China, nor its proxies, such as Hezbollah, are in a position to support Iran, the regime appears set to fall into isolation like that of North Korea — if not worse. Unlike Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran, Kim Jong-Un of North Korea at least has nuclear weapons as ultimate deterrence.

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New power dynamics to drive Iran into isolation

While wars with Hamas and Hezbollah after the October 7 attack had already changed power dynamics in West Asia, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has further solidified it.

Iran was the military powerhouse of West Asia on the back of its military strength, its network of proxies, strategic depth in Syria, and alliance with China and Russia. However, since the October 7 attack, the war in the Gaza Strip has reduced Hamas to a shadow of its former self, the war in Lebanon has battered Hezbollah, and the conflict with Houthis in Yemen has degraded their abilities. Iran has also lost its strategic depth in Syria with the ouster of Bashar al-Assad.

With no direct substantial support from Russia and China and having lost its own strength and that of its proxies, Iran is no longer is in a position to assert power. This is bound to increase Iran’s isolation in the world and reduce its relevance even for its allies.

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With mounting sanctions, poor economy, and a battered economy, Iran appears set to be the next North Korea, but without nuclear weapons, which at least assure dictator Kim security.

No good options with Iran

Even if Iran survives this war and develops a nuclear weapon under the belief that only nuclear weapons can assure its security, the regime would be headed towards a future like North Korea.

While Russia and Iran don’t want Iran to be defeated, they also don’t want it to have a nuclear weapon. Developing a nuclear weapon would put Iran in a situation where it could get security guarantee at the cost of even its allies giving up on the relationship.

Nuclear weapons is a red line even for allies. Regarding the war in Ukraine, China had conveyed to Russia that the usage of nuclear weapons should be off the table.

Internal troubles to worsen problems

Unlike North Korea, Iran has visible disgruntlement against the rulers that comes to a boil every few years.

In 2022, after the regime’s morality police killed a young woman for the purported violation of hijab laws, hundreds of thousands of people took to streets for weeks in an uprising that shattered the impression of Khamenei’s grip on Iranians. While the regime cracked down on the movement with brute force and the movement eventually died, it showed the world that a large chunk of the population is just waiting for the opportunity to rise against the regime.

The weakening of the regime as a result of the war with Iran and subsequent isolation could provide grounds for another uprising.