As Iran prepares to attack Israel, President Pezeshkian battles IRGC generals to prevent all-out war: Report

As Israel braces for an attack, the Iranian leadership is gripped in a debate between the moderates and extremists over the nature of the attack, according to a report.

Iran has vowed to avenge the assassination of the then-Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran , which it blamed on Iran. There are fears that the Iranian attack on Israel and the subsequent Israeli response could trigger an escalatory cycle that leads to an all-out war in the Middle East .

Amid such fears, The Daily Telegraph has reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian is engaged in a confrontation with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders to prevent an all-out war.

The newspaper reported that while Pezeshkian is in favour of attacking Israeli interests out outside of Israel so that the situation does not escalate, the IRGC commanders favour an attack on Israeli military sites in Tel Avivi and other Israeli cities.

The debate is the latest iteration of the moderates versus extremists turf war in Iran. While Pezeshkian is a moderate leader , the IRGC comprises of the extremists. Pezeshkian became the President of Iran last month by defeating the extremist IRGC veterans among other candidates.

The IRGC is a vastly influential armed force and intelligence agency of Iran. It functions independently of the regular military, police, or intelligence services and reports directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since its inception, it has been the personal sword arm of the Supreme Leader. The primary mandate of the IRGC is to preserve the Islamic Revolution of 1979 that brought the present regime in existence and export it abroad. The Quds Force is the foreign operations and intelligence arm of the IRGC that coordinates with Iran-backed groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah in the Middle East, for covert subversive acts abroad.

Pezeshkian favours attacks outside Israel: Report

Pezeshkian favours a two-fold approach to Haniyeh’s assassination, according to The Telegraph.

One, Pezeshkian has said that Iran should attack Israeli interests abroad, such as bases of Israeli spy agency Mossad in Kurdish areas in the region and in Azerbaijan. Two, he has said that Iran should arm Hezbollah to wage the war on its behalf. This would mean that Hezbollah incurs the damage on Israel but Iran stays away from a direct confrontation.

The IRGC, on the other hand, favours strikes on military targets in Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities, according to newspaper.

Even the IRGC, however, favours striking such that civilian casualties are avoided, as per the paper.

“Mr Pezeshkian fears that any direct attack on Israel would have serious consequences. He mentioned that we were lucky that Iran did not go to an all-out war with Israel last time and maybe not this time,” said an aide close to Pezeshkian to the newspaper.

A second aide said, “He has suggested targeting somewhere related to Israel in the Republic of Azerbaijan or [Iraqi] Kurdistan and let these countries know before that and get done with the whole drama.”

Lengthy discussions have taken place where Pezeshkian has tried to convince the IRGC generals that an attack on Israel could spiral out of control and lead to a full-fledged war, according to the paper.

The second aide said that Pezeshkian is convinced that the extremist commanders of the IRGC want a full-scale war.

“He is aware that the IRGC aims to draw the country into a war, yet he is determined to uphold the promises he made during his presidential campaign which included providing peaceful life conditions for people. Using his influence within the leader’s office, he is working to prevent the IRGC from plunging Iran into war,” said the second aide.

Final decision on attack remains with Supreme Leader

Even as a debate-cum-turf war continues in Iran, the final say on the attack remains with one person alone: Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Like everything else in Iran, Khamenei holds the final say in when and how the attack will happen. While it has been reported that Khamenei has ordered direct attacks on Israel, the nature of that anticipated attack is not known.

The United States and Israel have assessed that Iran will attack Israel the way it did in April in response to the assassination of top commanders in an airstrike on the diplomatic mission in Syrian capital Damascus . Iran launched hundreds of missiles, rockets, and drones at Israel.

The assessment is that the upcoming attack will follow the same playbook — except that it would be much bigger in scope and an eventual off-ramp would be much harder. The Iran-backed anti-Israel groups in the region, such as Hezbollah, are also believed to join the attack this time. The CNN has reported that Iran and Hezbollah may mount separate attacks and Hezbollah may take the lead.

In April when Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time, an international coalition comprising the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia helped with the defence of Israel. The United States is working to revive the same coalition this time to tackle the anticipated attack , but it is proving much harder as anti-Israel sentiment has soared in the region after Haniyeh’s killing.

Even as Western and Arab leaders work round the clock to press Israel and Iran to not escalate the conflict beyond the point of no return, The Wall Street Journal has reported that Iran has conveyed to Arab leaders that it no longer cares if its attack leads to an all-out war .

As for how the attack will play out, an IRGC official told The Telegraph that the preference was to attack Tel Aviv along with Hezbollah and other groups at the same time.