As Israel braces for 'imminent' attack, Iran may launch offensive as early as tonight: Reports

In the updated assessment in the wake of latest developments, Israel now believes that an attack from Iran and its regional allies is ‘imminent’, according to reports.

Previously, Israel had assessed that Iran was not going to launch an attack before the Gaza Strip ceasefire talks scheduled for Thursday (August 15). For nearly two weeks, Israel has been bracing for an attack as Iran has vowed to avenge the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran , which Iran blamed on Israel.

Now, Israel has assessed that the attack may come “within days” and has communicated it to the United States as well, according to Axios.

Moreover, Israeli media have reported that the Israeli government is preparing for an attack as early as late Monday and early Tuesday which could coincide with the Tisha B’Av, the day Jews mourn the historical destruction of their temples in Jerusalem.

There are fears that anticipated Iranian attack and the subsequent Israeli response could plunge the Middle East into a full-scale war . Western and regional countries have been pressing for an offramp, but there are indications that Iran no longer cares. Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has told Arab countries it no longer cares whether its attack sparks a full-fledged regional war .

Israel braces for imminent Iranian attack

The assessment that Iran could now attack “within days” has been prepared in light of fresh inputs within the past 24 hours, according to Axios.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Sunday that the Iranian military preparations suggest Iran is getting ready for a large-scale attack, according to the report.

It is a major change in the Israeli stance as, over the past week, it was believed that all-round international pressure and internal debate-cum-turf war could make Iran ditch the planned attack in favour of a ceasefire deal. Iran’s mission to the United Nations (UN) had said that they hoped their “response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire”.

Any attack that comes before the Thursday’s Gaza ceasefire and hostage release talks could compromise a deal, but there are already indications that Iran and Iran-backed Hamas may not be in the mood of a deal. Hamas on Sunday said in a statement that it would not take part in Thursday’s talks in which Israel and Hamas were supposed to finalise the deal.

Hezbollah is likely to join Iran in any attack on Israel. It has been reported that the attacks may come jointly as well as separately — with Hezbollah leading the offensive. Axios reported that Israel still believes that Hezbollah is expected to attack first.

Iran-Hezbollah attack may come tonight

There are also indications that the Iranian-Hezbollah attack may happen as early as late Monday or Tuesday to coincide with the Tisha B’Av, the day Jews mourn the historical destruction of their First and Second Temples of Jerusalem in 6th century BCE and 1st century CE.

As Iran and its allies across the regions, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, reject the existence of the State of Israel and are committed to the destruction of Israel and Jews, an attack on a day Jews would be in mourning for historic destruction of their temples would be highly symbolic. There are already indications that Israel is planning for an attack as early as Monday night.

Staring 12 pm on Monday, the Israeli military has ordered closure of public spaces across southern Israel along the border with Gaza. The Jerusalem Post reported that the closures may have emerged to avoid mass casualties as large-scale prayers to mark Tisha B’Av were planned in the region.

Separately, Sky News Arabia had previously reported that Iran may launch the attack on Tisha B’Av, which falls on August 12-13.

Separately, Channel 13 has reported that one factor holding off Iran from attacking Israel was the French pressure. The channel reported that France had pressure Iran to not attack Israel as long as the Olympics were going on in Paris. The Olympics concluded on Sunday.

The Israeli-US understanding is that Iran would largely follow the April’s playbook when it attacked Israel for the first time with hundreds of missiles, drones, and rockets in retaliation to the assassination of top commanders in an airstrike in Syrian capital Damascus. This time, the attack is expected to be on a much bigger scale and an offramp is expected to be much harder. The United States is attempting to revive the coalition of US, British, French, Saudi, and Jordanian militaries that helped Israel beat the Iranian attack in April , but it has proved to be much harder as anti-Israel sentiment in the region as soared following Haniyeh’s assassination.

Even as the WSJ has reported that Iran no longer cares about sparking a regional war, there have been reports that Iran may significantly tone down the attack considering the great international pressure it is under — including from fellow Islamic states that have not outrightly endorsed an attack on Israel .