How lack of young women puts over 40% of municipalities in Japan at risk of vanishing

Over 40 per cent of Japan’s municipalities might eventually vanish due to a sharp population decline brought on by a chronically low birth rate.

The alarming figure was released in a study conducted by the Population Strategy Council (PSC), The Japan Times reported. The study found that the local municipalities would likely see their population of women aged 20 to 39 reduce by half between 2020 and 2050.

This can be concerning since the age range provided by the study is the childbearing age among women. Out of the 1,729 local municipalities nationwide, the group identified 744 municipalities at risk of disappearance.

Foreign immigration eases the risk

In 2014, the now-defunct Japan Policy Council released a similar report in which it stated that around 896 municipalities would eventually vanish because of similar factors.

However, the study released on Wednesday classified 99 new municipalities as being at risk of disappearing, while 239 municipalities that were incorporated in the 2014 report were not designated this time.

The PSC mentioned that foreign immigrants were the major factor that contributed to the difference between these two estimates. Despite this, the researchers stressed that the overall low birthrate trend had not improved.

What is the root cause? 

The PSC pointed out that the Japanese municipalities focused more on measures aimed at preventing population outflows towards urban areas such as Tokyo, rather than actually boosting birthrates.

In addition to this, the researchers also noted that neighbouring cities and towns were busy competing with one another to attract a younger population.

“Such zero-sum game-like efforts do not necessarily lead to an increase in birthrates, and their effectiveness in changing the overall trend of population decline in Japan is limited,” the report said.

Who were the big losers? 

By the area, the Tohoku region took the top spot when it comes to the number of municipalities that are at risk of disappearing. Meanwhile, the Kanto region, where Tokyo is located, has 91 at-risk municipalities and 21 “blackhole municipalities” — a term coined by the body that indicates extremely low birthrates and a heavy reliance on population inflows for growth.

“Each municipality is required to appropriately combine measures for natural population decline and social decline according to its own situation and challenges,” the report added.

It is important to note that back in January, the PSC hand-delivered a proposal to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in which it was stated that Japan should aim to have a population of 80 million by 2100.

The proposal mentioned that if Japan could maintain its population while boosting productivity, the country could still see an annual economic growth of about 0.9% from 2050 to 2100.

As of April, Japan’s population stands at 125 million, which is 3 million lower than the country’s population back in 2015. In light of this, Japanese Premier Fumio Kishida vowed to tackle the ageing population by taking measures to boost birth rates.

Last year, the Kishida administration created a new Children and Families Agency to oversee the government’s child-related policies. Despite all these measures the number of newborn babies continued to hit new lows with preliminary data showing a total of 758,631 births in 2023, including babies born to foreign residents in Japan and Japanese nationals living abroad, The Japan Times reported.