How India's top brass plans to deal with terror fomented in Pakistan

India’s top strategic brass is well aware of the upcoming dangers of big-ticket terror strikes in India choreographed by elements in Pakistan. The extremely volatile political situation in Pakistan has made such a possibility starker. A murky behind-the-scenes power game is going on within Pakistan. Bruce Riedel, a former CIA analyst, has even gone to the extent of saying thus: “Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence directorate is using terrorist brinkmanship to threaten India and undermine Nawaz Sharif. It’s time to stop this dangerous game.” Riedel’s piece, published by The Daily Beast, can be read here. The formation of India-specific Al Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) has muddied the security scenario in India further and considerably heightened the terror threat at a time when months-long festive season is around the corner. The Narendra Modi government is not much perturbed about the al Qaeda threat or the emergence of AQIS. However, there is a strong possibility that elements in Pakistan may carry out high profile terror attacks in India or on Indian interests abroad and try to pass these off as AQIS acts. This will be part of the larger strategic synergy that various terror outfits have among themselves and also a covert understanding elements in Pakistan have with India-specific terror outfits. [caption id=“attachment_1700599” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Ajit Doval. A screengrab from YouTube video uploaded by Australia India Institute.[/caption] This writer is given to understand that the Modi is well prepared on the terror front. Terror outfits may succeed in one or two strikes but they won’t be able to get away and won’t be able to wreak the kind of mayhem they had unleashed in Mumbai in November 2008. India’s Strategy to Deal with Terror China figures very prominently in Modi government’s scheme of things; not just for political, diplomatic and economic cooperation but even for tackling the menace of terrorism. India is not much bothered about the Pakistan factor in this context as one can be well guarded from a known enemy having a known agenda. Being forewarned is being forearmed. And intelligence inputs in this regard are doing just that. India’s prime strategy is take relationship with China to a much higher trajectory. If China is genuinely on board with India on all fronts, even including counter-terrorism efforts, Pakistan can at best succeed in giving a few mosquito bites to India. Doval is leaving for a crucial visit to China today. Apart from having intensive discussions with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi, a powerful diplomat-politician, Doval will also be meeting foreign minister Wang Yi and will top the visit with a meeting with President Xi Jinping who is scheduled to arrive in India on his maiden official visit ten days later. Normally, such preparatory trips for an important incoming visit are undertaken by the foreign minister. But given the political equations in the Modi government, this humongous task has been assigned to the NSA. Ajit Doval has been specifically hand-picked by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for undertaking this sensitive mission to Beijing. Also, China has been conveyed that Doval is undertaking his visit to China with full powers vested in him by the Indian Prime Minister. A lot will be riding on Xi’s visit to India and his meeting with PM Modi on 17 September. Doval’s Mission Beijing is to ensure that Xi’s India visit throws up more concrete deliverables than Modi’s Japan visit and his formal talks with Japanese PM Shinzo Abe on 1 September. In many ways, the Modi-Xi meeting will pave the way for his third important summit with a world leader this month – with US President Barack Obama on 30 September in Washington. Terror and the Pakistan factor will inevitably figure very prominently in Doval’s talks with his Chinese counterparts in Beijing and then with Xi’s talks with his Indian interlocutors in New Delhi, though much of it will remain away from the media glare. That is why China is crucial in the Modi government’s scheme of things and major outcomes can be expected during Xi’s upcoming India visit. But that is a different story. Watch this space. The writer is FirstPost Consulting Editor and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha