Hostages head home, but Gaza is still not a done deal: Three reasons why

The exchange of hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners, brokered by international mediators, has brought a moment of profound joy and relief to families in Israel and Gaza, with US President Donald Trump hailing the deal as a path to “lasting peace”.

However, as the focus shifts to the “day after,” many warn that the truce merely marks the end of one chapter and the beginning of a far more complex struggle for long-term stability in the devastated enclave.

Absence of a legitimate Palestinian partner for governance

A primary obstacle to the Trump administration’s reconstruction and governance plan for Gaza is the absence of a credible and legitimate Palestinian governing authority to replace Hamas. The plan envisions a transition from Hamas rule to a “technocratic Palestinian committee” under international oversight, but this framework is fraught with difficulty.

The Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank, lacks the popular support and capacity to assume control of Gaza. Polling has consistently shown a significant portion of Palestinians view the PA as a “burden,” and its security coordination with Israel further erodes its legitimacy among its own people, according to the Arab Center Washington DC.  

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Hamas, which agreed to release hostages but has made no public commitment to disarm, explicitly rejects the proposed governance structure, insisting that “only Palestinians can control Palestinians” . This leaves an enormous void in civil administration and security, risking a vacuum that could be filled by “criminal elements, rival militant factions, and Hamas operating covertly.”

Also watch | US President Donald Trump lands in Israel as first set of hostages head home

A looming battle for regional influence in Gaza

The cessation of hostilities has opened the door for increased international involvement in Gaza’s future, but the convergence of interests from the US, Gulf states, and Turkey is poised to spark a battle for influence over the enclave’s political and physical reconstruction.

While the US has been a key mediator, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also expressed hope that the agreement will “open the way to lasting peace and stability” for the region and the Palestinian people, as reported by the The Economic Times.

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Meanwhile, Arab states like Saudi Arabia and Egypt have emphasised the need for a complete cessation of Israeli aggression and the free entry of humanitarian aid. With vast rebuilding efforts required—estimates for necessary housing construction, according to the Norwegian Refugee Council, range from 100,000 to 150,000 units—the competition for control over reconstruction funding and political leverage will intensify.

Disagreement among these powerful regional and international actors over who should govern and for what ultimate political horizon—a Palestinian state, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has categorically rejected—may paralyze progress.

Netanyahu hails ’tremendous victories’ but warns of re-arming enemies

Further clouding the prospects for sustained peace is the security rhetoric from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

While celebrating the return of the hostages as part of Israel’s “great achievements in the war,” Netanyahu maintained that the ultimate goal of the conflict remains “absolute victory” over its enemies, not merely the return of the hostages, as quoted by The Times of Israel.

In recent statements, Netanyahu has warned that Israel is still in an “existential war” and that his government is committed to pursuing the “sacred mission of bringing back all of our hostages—the living and the deceased”. He cautioned that the military’s successes against Iranian-backed groups were significant—claiming to have “crushed the bulk of Hamas’s terror machine” and “crippled Hezbollah”—but stressed that enemies will seek to “rebuild its military nuclear capacities” and their “axis has not yet disappeared,” according to UN News.

Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing the campaign until “absolute victory has been achieved” and his rejection of an independent Palestinian state are in direct conflict with the long-term political solutions advocated by many international partners.

This fundamental disconnect between Israel’s security doctrine and the political needs of Gaza’s future may be what keeps lasting peace off the table.