 "Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer speaks during a BBC Question Time Leaders' Special in York, UK, 20 June, 2024. Reuters")
A day before the Britons went to polling stations to cast their votes, the Mega polls predicting the outcome of the race to No. 10, revealed that the Labour Party under the leadership of Keir Starmer would win the highly-anticipated elections.
According to the YouGov’s MRP poll, Starmer’s Labour party is predicted to win 431 seats, with the Tories crashing down to a mere 102 seats. If the predictions turn out to be true, this will be the first time the Labour party will come to power in 14 years. Several pollsters predicted the party might end up getting a landslide victory with Starmer being the top contender for the PM post.
However, this begs the question of how Starmer will perform in his own constituency. Let’s have a look at the track record of the Labour Party firebrand on his own turf.
Holborn and St Pancras: The home ground for the labour
The parliamentary constituency in Greater London was created in 1983 and has been a strong ground for labour since its inception. Right from the very beginning, the seat of Holborn & St. Pancras has been represented by two Members of Parliament (MP) – both from the Labour Party.
Before Starmer, the late British politician Frank Dobson was the MP from the seat. Dobson represented the constituency from 1983 to 2015 when he retired from mainstream politics.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsAfter Dobson’s retirement, the Labour Party unanimously selected Keir Starmer to represent the region. It is pertinent to note that the constituency was re-created in 2023, following the Boundary Commission recommendations, losing two large northern wards to the new Hampstead and Highgate parliamentary seat.
The seat covers the southern half of the London Borough of Camden, including all or most of Camden Town, King’s Cross, Gospel Oak, Kentish Town and Bloomsbury.
How Starmer has performed
After Dobson’s retirement, Starmer took the reign of the constituency. The following table reflects his performance in the region:
| Year | Percentage of Votes | Win margins (How many more votes than the candidate who came second?) |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 52.9% | 17,048 votes |
| 2017 | 70.1% | 30,509 votes |
| 2019 | 64.5% | 27,763 votes |
Interestingly, Starmer has supported the unsuccessful Britain Stronger in Europe campaign in the 2016 European Union membership referendum. He eventually served as the Shadow Brexit Secretary under Jeremy Corbyn, whom he succeeded as the leader of the Labour Party in April 2020, winning on the first ballot.
It is not exactly clear where he lies when it comes to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war since he has been a member of the parliamentarian groups Labour Friends of Israel and Labour Friends of Palestine and the Middle East.
New challenges
Apart from Starmer around 11 candidates are contesting polls from the seat of Holborn and St Pancras. While Starmer is known for winning the seat by a landslide, one of his main competitors will be Mehreen Malik from the Conservative Party.
Malik is running polls on three major priorities:
Protecting green spaces in the constituency.
Dealing with the housing crisis
Fighting crime in Holborn and St Pancras
Starmer’s other competitors include; Andrew Feinstein (Independent), Charlie Clinton ( Liberal Democrat), John Poynton (UK Independence Party), David Roberst (Reform Party), etc.
Earlier this week, candidates and party representatives from the constituency clashed over a plethora of climate and nature issues at a campaign event.
The event was organised by Zero Hour, a campaign group advocating for a Climate and Nature Bill, and 24 other organisations contributing, with five of the 12 candidates invited to attend. Four main parties were invited for the debate.
Liberal Democrats and Greens sending their candidates Charlie Clinton and David Stansell, respectively. Labour sent Adam Harrison, a local councillor and Cabinet Member for a sustainable Camden. Harrison deputised for Starmer who was busy duking it out against Sunak.
Meanwhile, The Conservative parties decline to send a representative. Independent candidate Andrew Feinstein, a former MP from South Africa, who joined the race opposing the Labour Party’s stance on Gaza, also attended the event.
During the event candidates clashed on national topics like phasing out gas heating and retrofitting social housing stock, to local issues like growing more fruit and vegetables in the borough and balancing the need for access to nature and requirements for more housing.
Feinstein also used the opportunity to make his credentials known. While posing his arguments, he emphasised his experience in government drafting legislation as an MP in South Africa’s first democratically elected government under Nelson Mandela.
While polls predict that Holborn and St Pancras will continue to remain a strong turf for the Labour Party, Starmer can witness a significant challenge in the 2024 General Elections. Will Holborn and St Pancras’ Starwalt will become the next PM of the UK, is a question which only time can tell.
With inputs from agencies.