Germany: Merz’s Conservatives face likely defeat in key regional vote after national election win

Germany’s conservative bloc is expected to suffer a setback in Sunday’s (March 2) regional election in Hamburg, just a week after Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz led his party to victory over Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) in the national vote.

The center-left SPD has dominated Hamburg’s politics for most of the past 80 years, including during Scholz’s tenure as mayor from 2011 to 2018.

According to a poll released Thursday (February 27) by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for public broadcaster ZDF, incumbent SPD Mayor Peter Tschentscher is projected to win with 33 per cent of the vote, likely allowing him to continue governing in coalition with the Greens, according to Bloomberg.

The Greens are polling at 17 per cent, just behind Merz’s center-right CDU at 18 per cent, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is at 9 per cent and the Left party at 12 per cent.

While the SPD’s support is expected to decline from nearly 40 per cent in the 2020 regional election, the results indicate the party maintains strongholds in parts of Germany despite its historic defeat in last weekend’s national election. The SPD secured only 16 per cent nationwide, placing third behind the AfD, which took 21 per cent.

However, the party is still expected to play a role in Merz’s incoming government as a junior coalition partner.

Talks underway for national government

Merz has set a mid-April deadline to form his administration, and officials from the CDU/CSU and SPD held their first round of exploratory coalition talks in Berlin on Friday (February 28). In a joint statement, the parties described the discussions as “open and constructive” and said further meetings were planned this week.

Finance Minister Joerg Kukies presented an overview of Germany’s fiscal outlook during Friday’s meeting, with budget challenges expected to be a central topic in upcoming negotiations.

Tschentscher’s popularity boosts SPD

Tschentscher’s strong personal approval ratings have helped bolster SPD support in Hamburg. Among the 1,046 voters surveyed for the ZDF poll, 51 per cent said they preferred him as mayor. His rivals, Greens candidate Katharina Fegebank and CDU candidate Dennis Thering, trailed with 14 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively.

Polls opened at 8 am local time, with exit poll results expected at 6 pm Hamburg, one of Germany’s 16 federal states, has about 1.3 million eligible voters and holds representation in the Bundesrat, Germany’s upper house of parliament. Voter turnout in the 2020 election was 63 per cent.