Gaza to Tehran and Beirut: Polls in Israel show why Netanyahu may not end the war just yet

The Israeli actions against terrorists in Iran and Lebanon may have raised fears of a full-scale war, but it has helped Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

For more than a year and a half, Netanyahu had been deeply unpopular in Israel. Even before the October 7 attack which his government failed to prevent or prepare for, his controversial judicial overhaul project had torn apart the Israeli society with nationwide protests and counter-protests becoming the norm.

The polarisation was such that even the military and intelligence services personnel were part of protests. Months of nationwide pre-occupation with the judicial overhaul-related protests meant that little attention was paid to national security concerns — particularly towards Gaza Strip. Following the October 7 attack and the subsequent setback in the war, including the failure to secure the release of hostages, Netanyahu’s approval ratings were abysmal.

But that appears to be changing now — and that may mean Netanyahu may not dilute the Israeli offensive against regional adversaries anytime soon.

Since July-end, there has been a surge in support for Netanyahu and his right-wing Likud party, according to polls.

Such support has been credited to the perception among the public that Israel is finally finding its footing after a series of setbacks and is succeeding in going after its enemies. As attacks against Hamas and Hezbollah in the region are central to boosting such a perception, it is unlikely he would tone down attacks anytime soon — irrespective of risk of war such escalation carries. As his political survival depends on upping the ante, he is unlikely to tone down attacks.

Netanyahu’s support increased after strikes in Beirut & Tehran: Report

The support for Netanyahu and his Likud party started increasing after back-to-back strikes in Lebanon’s Beirut and Iran’s Tehran.

On July 31, an Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed Hezbollah military chief Faud Shukr.

Hours later, Hamas and Iran confirmed that Ismail Haniyeh, the chief of Hamas at the time, was assassinated in a state guesthouse in Tehran. While both Hamas and Iran blamed Israel for the assassination, Israel never claimed responsibility for the attack.

Haniyeh’s assassination was a colossal embarrassment for Iran. He was assassinated within hours of attending the new Iranian President Masoud’s Pezeshkian’s inauguration. He was killed in a guesthouse of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Tehran. The embarrassment of Hamas and Iran was a major boost of Israel and a demonstration of its famed intelligence and operational capabilities which were deemed to be irremediably doomed after the October 7 failure.

Pollster and political analyst Dahlia Scheindlin told Financial Times that Netanyahu has “definitely recovered” from the post-war collapse of support.

The Israeli increasing aggression at the regional level has surely played a role in Netanyahu’s rehabilitation, said Scheindlin.

From the worst prediction of 16 seats after October 7 attack, Netanyahu’s Likud is now expected to get seats in mid- to low-20 in the 120-seat parliament.

“It looks like Israel is taking the initiative. It’s true everybody gets terrified about the consequences. But each time they have ultimately been far less than the Armageddon many worried about. And a lot of people come out of it thinking Netanyahu has . . . regained Israel’s footing," said Scheindlin, adding that ‘rallying around the flag’ effect is also taking place.

Scheindlin further said that failure in Gaza, mainly the inability to secure the release of hostages, is being offset by actions in Lebanon and Iran.

“Netanyahu is losing credibility [on Gaza] because he overpromises ‘total victory’, and . . . poll after poll shows people think his decision making is driven by his political needs rather than the public interest. There is a much stronger sense of rallying around the flag when it comes to Hizbollah and [the threat of] a regional escalation," said Scheindlin to FT.

Analysts have also said that the weak Opposition has also helped Netanyahu. Nadav Strauchler, a political strategist who once worked with Netanyahu, told FT that the Opposition has failed to corner Netanyahu despite a string of failures.