From ‘dear friends’ to deadlock: How a ceasefire spat sparked the sharpest US–India rift in decades

What began as a simmering diplomatic misunderstanding over an India–Pakistan ceasefire has snowballed into one of the sharpest downturns in US and India relations in decades with a tense phone call between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the center of the fallout.

The spark came in May, when India and Pakistan agreed to halt a brief but intense border flare-up. Trump publicly claimed credit for brokering the truce, even portraying himself as the man who averted a potential nuclear confrontation. Indian officials bristled, insisting the ceasefire followed direct talks between New Delhi and Islamabad at Pakistan’s request with no third-party mediation.

By mid-June, the dispute came to a head. Fresh from an early departure from the G7 summit in Canada, Trump phoned Modi for a 35-minute conversation. According to officials, Modi bluntly reiterated that India “does not and will never accept mediation,” while explaining the direct channels used to end the fighting.

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Indian aides were already uneasy after learning Trump planned to host Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir for lunch the next day at the White House. While New Delhi was unbothered by meetings with Pakistan’s civilian leadership, extending an invitation to the army, accused by India of backing militant groups was seen as a provocation. Fearing Trump might push for an awkward Modi–Munir encounter, the Indian leader declined a White House stopover on his return from Canada.

Officials in New Delhi say the tone from Washington shifted soon after that call. Within weeks, Trump’s public remarks toward India turned openly hostile, culminating in this week’s announcement of a 50% tariff on Indian exports, half of which he linked to India’s purchase of Russian oil.

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The escalation is being seen as a dramatic reversal in a relationship that successive US administrations had nurtured for nearly 30 years as part of a broader strategy to counterbalance China. Only months ago, Trump and PM Modi had exchanged warm words, calling each other “dear friend” and pledging deeper cooperation.

Trade talks, launched after Trump’s earlier “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, initially showed promise. But negotiations grew tense over agriculture, genetically modified crops, and steel and aluminium duties. The ceasefire dispute added another layer of friction, coinciding with Trump’s tougher posture toward Russia and threats of tariffs on countries buying its oil.

New Delhi, once optimistic about a quick deal, watched as Trump inked agreements with other nations. By late July, his announcement of a 25% “reciprocal” tariff followed days later by the even steeper 50% measure sent relations into a downward spiral.

While Modi has vowed to defend India’s small farmers and denounced the US tariffs as “unfair and unreasonable,” officials say retaliation is unlikely for now. Instead, they are weighing targeted concessions, particularly in agriculture, to break the deadlock.

Yet the episode is prompting a broader rethink in New Delhi. India’s historic reliance on Moscow forged during the Cold War when Washington backed Pakistan remains a fall back, and some officials now see scope to cautiously warm ties with China. Modi is expected to visit Beijing later this month for the first time in seven years, meeting President Xi Jinping at a regional summit.

Analysts warn that Trump’s hardball tactics may yield short-term trade wins but carry strategic risks. “Beijing will be the biggest beneficiary of this dispute,” Lindsey Ford, a former US National Security Council official told Bloomberg. “The US has spent decades building trust with India, this could unravel it in months.”