'Freeze war with Ukraine': Top Russian general raises Progozhin-style pitch to stop hostilities

Alexander Khodakovsky, the commander of the “Vostok” Battalion, has put forth a proposal to halt the conflict in Ukraine, advocating for a freeze along the existing frontlines. This idea revives a perspective that had been largely dormant since Yevgeny Prigozhin led an armed rebellion. Khodakovsky said that Russia will not be able to topple Ukraine militarily in the near term and that Russian forces are unlikely to easily occupy additional Ukrainian cities, echoing comments Prigozhin had made in April 2023, the Institute for the Study of War quoted (ISW) him as saying. Khodakovsky said that Russia will likely have to come to a “truce” and that it may enter a phase “of neither peace nor war” with Ukraine, ISW quoted him as saying. Khodakovsky suggested that Ukraine would be sufficiently weakened in this state of frozen conflict and that Russia would be able to exert more influence over Ukraine in such a situation. In an essay dated April 14, Prigozhin put forward the notion of Russia putting a halt to the conflict in Ukraine. The purpose behind this move would be to establish favourable conditions for an eventual triumph without the need for negotiations. Similar sentiments have been sporadically expressed by Russian sources, indicating the existence of a faction within the Kremlin that finds merit in the idea of freezing the war along the present frontlines. This perspective stems not only from strategic considerations but also from concerns regarding internal political stability and the potential adverse economic repercussions of the ongoing conflict. However, discussions regarding this perspective have diminished notably since Prigozhin’s reduced public statements subsequent to the Wagner Group’s uprising on June 24, along with the apprehension of fervent ultranationalist Igor Girkin. The latter figure consistently urged the Kremlin to resist the faction advocating for a frozen conflict. It appears that Khodakovsky might be resurfacing this narrative within the Russian information sphere, potentially acting on behalf of the faction purportedly interested in a war freeze. Nevertheless, Khodakovsky’s influence on the broader Russian leadership is likely circumscribed. In the region along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, Khodakovsky commands the forces responsible for defence. His recent remarks regarding the possibility of freezing the ongoing conflict come on the heels of Ukraine’s successful capture of Urozhaine on August 16. This development hints at the potential erosion of confidence within the Russian defensive position across the broader expanse of southern Ukraine. Khodakovsky has previously drawn attention to pressing issues linked to the Russian defence in the border region between Donetsk and Zaporizhia. He specifically highlighted concerns about deficient Russian counterbattery capabilities, substantial losses suffered by Russian forces, the evident fatigue among these forces, and the scarcity of reserves available. As early as August 13, Khodakovsky had advocated for a temporary operational pause, aiming to afford Russian forces the opportunity to amass resources for a forthcoming military action. The shift from Khodakovsky’s initial call for an operational pause to his current proposal of freezing the conflict likely stems from his direct involvement in recent and strategically significant advancements made by Ukrainian forces, coupled with the observable weakening of Russian defending units in the Urozhaine region.