Finland’s Stubb says Ukraine ceasefire unlikely soon, calls for stronger European support

A ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely before spring, and European nations must maintain their support despite a corruption scandal engulfing Kyiv, President Alexander Stubb of Finland told The Associated Press.

He said Europe will need “sisu” — the Finnish concept of endurance, resilience and grit — to withstand the winter as Russia continues hybrid attacks and information warfare across the continent.

Stubb relies on that same resilience as a key European interlocutor between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Leading a country that shares a 1,340-kilometre (830-mile) border with Russia, he understands the stakes. Finland lost about 10% of its territory after two wars with Russia in the 1940s and remained militarily neutral until Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine pushed it into NATO.

Stubb uses his rapport with Trump — the two have played golf together and speak regularly — to make Ukraine’s case. “I can explain to President Trump what Finland went through, or how I see the situation on the battlefield, or how you deal with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin? And then, you know, if he accepts one out of 10 ideas, that’s good,” he said.

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Speaking at a military base north of Helsinki as volunteers trained in freezing temperatures, Stubb wore a jacket emblazoned with “sisu” while observing evacuation drills.

He said Zelenskyy must act swiftly on allegations of kickbacks and embezzlement, warning the scandal benefits Russia. Even so, he urged Europe to increase financial and military support for Kyiv as Russia makes battlefield gains.

“I’m not very optimistic about achieving a ceasefire or the beginning of peace negotiations, at least this year,” Stubb said, adding that “getting something going” by March would be ideal.

Key Issues on the Road to a Ceasefire

Stubb identified three critical issues for a ceasefire: securing guarantees for Ukraine, rebuilding its economy, and resolving territorial disputes. Pressure on Russia must be maximised to shift Putin’s strategy, he argued. Putin “basically wants to deny the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” he said.

He suggested using frozen Russian assets as collateral for Ukraine and increasing military pressure on Moscow. Stubb praised Trump’s sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, calling them “an excellent job,” but said more is needed to enhance Ukraine’s strike capability.

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Last month, Trump denied Ukraine’s request for long-range Tomahawk missiles, though Kyiv currently lacks the launch platforms. Stubb indicated talks with the US for more firepower continue.

Trump’s shifting stance on Ukraine

In mid-October, the White House announced — then abruptly cancelled — a Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest. Stubb said Secretary of State Marco Rubio likely realised during a call with Sergey Lavrov that “the Russians haven’t moved an inch,” making the meeting pointless. The cancellation was “another example of a strategic mistake by the Russians. They had an opportunity and they blew it,” he said.

Trump has fluctuated between outreach and pressure toward both Putin and Zelenskyy. Stubb copes with these shifts by remaining “quite patient” and accepting “reality.” “You can’t have illusions about things that you would like to see happening,” he said.

Despite Ukraine’s challenges, Stubb praised Zelenskyy: leading a country at war is “existential,” he said, adding, “You learn a lot from other human beings in that situation.”

Stubb’s personal bond with Trump

Stubb’s ties to the US — including studying on a golf scholarship — helped him build a rapport with Trump. They spent seven hours golfing at Mar-a-Lago in March, which Stubb described as a “door-opener.” He said he and other European leaders often act as intermediaries between Trump and Zelenskyy: “We interpret President Trump to President Zelenskyy and vice versa.”

However, Stubb said only Trump should negotiate publicly and directly with Putin, noting that the EU is unlikely to open its own channel with Moscow soon.

Russia’s hybrid attacks across Europe

As Trump negotiates with Putin, Europe is already facing suspected Russian drone incursions, fighter jet activity and an alleged sabotage campaign. Stubb said Russia is waging a hybrid war, blurring “the line between war and peace” and trying to “cause havoc and panic” through arson, vandalism and propaganda.

The way to respond, he said, is to “be Finnish.”

“In other words, be cool, calm, collected and have a little bit of that sisu.”