Faulty math and accounting tricks: How much has DOGE inflated its savings numbers

The Trump administration’s flagship cost-cutting agency, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), says it has saved taxpayers more than $54 billion by tearing up federal contracts and taking a hard line on spending. A closer look at public data suggests those claims are greatly inflated.

An analysis of federal spending records by POLITICO found that between February and July, DOGE’s verifiable savings from cancelled contracts came to about $1.4 billion, far short of the $32.7 billion the agency claimed for that period.

Even then, none of that money will reduce the federal deficit unless Congress takes back the funds. Under current law, most of it stays with the agencies, which must spend it.

Counting credit limits as cash in hand

DOGE uses the maximum possible value of each contract as its baseline for “savings” — the ceiling value, not the amount actually committed. Contract experts say that approach is like canceling a credit card with a $20,000 limit and claiming you just saved $20,000. In many cases, these ceiling figures far exceed what the government was likely to spend.

The White House insists DOGE’s data is sound. Spokesman Harrison Fields said the figures are “rigorously scrubbed” with agency officials and updated in real time. But POLITICO found that about 40 per cent of claimed savings from posted contracts could not be verified because DOGE withheld identifying details.

Lowering the ceiling instead of closing the account

In many cases, DOGE is not canceling contracts outright but lowering their ceiling values. That reduces the theoretical maximum cost, but it does not mean those dollars would have been spent. For the contracts that could be traced, ceiling reductions totaled about $14 billion— well below the $32.7 billion in claimed savings.

Some cancelled contracts have even been restarted. At the Department of Veterans Affairs, DOGE claimed $932 million in savings from cancellations, including a suicide prevention services contract. Records show the VA recovered only $132 million, then reinstated the suicide prevention work.

Headline figures vs. reality on the ground

One of DOGE’s largest single claims involves a migrant shelter contract in Pecos, Texas. DOGE said canceling it would save $2.9 billion. In reality, the maximum savings before the contract’s scheduled review date in November would be about $126 million — roughly 4 per cent of DOGE’s claim. The inflated number came from subtracting the $428 million actually obligated from the $3.3 billion ceiling.

Another example is a consulting contract at the Energy Department to help set appliance efficiency standards. DOGE listed it as canceled, claiming $166 million in savings. The department says it was reduced, not cancelled, and that the real change was lowering the ceiling by just under $100 million. No funds have been returned.

Hard to measure, harder to prove

Experts note that true savings from canceling contracts are difficult to calculate. Terminations can trigger extra costs such as paying for work already done, settling leases, or covering subcontractors’ expenses. Those bills can take years to finalise.

By law, agencies must spend the money Congress gives them, even if a contract is canceled. They can shift it to other priorities but cannot simply leave it unspent without a formal rescission from Congress.

A shrinking “wall of receipts”

DOGE’s online “wall of receipts,” a public log of terminated contracts, has seen slower updates since Elon Musk left the agency in May. The page went weeks without new entries this summer. Musk has since turned on Trump, criticising a spending bill the president signed in July and promising to launch his own third party to push for deeper cuts.

For now, DOGE’s lofty savings numbers remain a staple of administration talking points. But federal records suggest the truth lies somewhere in the middle, well below the headline figures and far above zero, with the real impact still years from being known.