 "US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan June 28, 2019. (Photo: Reuters)")
US President Donald Trump has a pattern —not a method— to what his critics call madness in his dealing with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
First, Trump promises a ceasefire. Then, he floats offers favouring Russia and pressures Ukraine to accept those offers — Ukraine has accepted all three ceasefire offers so far. When Putin rejects those offers, Trump invokes sanctions. Then, he expresses shock when Putin ramps up attacks and pleads to Putin when attacks continue despite public pleadings. In the end, Trump does nothing and simply accepts Putin’s terms.
In a relish for Kremlin, Trump also makes sure to trash Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy along the way for starting the war and call Putin names.
In recent weeks, Trump has followed the pattern to the T: He first floated three ceasefire offers that benefitted Russia much more than Ukraine. As Ukraine accepted and Russia rejected those offers, he joined European leaders in threatening Russia with sanctions if Putin would not agree to an immediate ceasefire. When Putin refused, Trump junked the threat, dropped the call for a ceasefire, and instead handed Putin a victory by endorsing Russia’s position in the war.
ALSO READ: In high-stakes call, Trump gives in to Putin & endorses Russia’s position in Ukraine war
The result is that Putin stands more emboldened than ever to wage the war Ukraine — thanks to his ties with Trump.
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More ShortsTrump has endorsed Russia’s position in war
In a high-stakes call last Monday, Trump endorsed Putin’s position of direct talks with Ukraine and gave up his own demand for an immediate 30-day ceasefire.
It is an open secret that direct talks are a pretext to prolong the war as much as possible and tire out Ukraine’s supporters — the United States is already tired under Trump. Since then, Russia has attacked Ukraine with thousands of missiles and drones and killed dozens.
Trump also indicated after the call that he was done mediating and could not be expected to pressurise Russia — not that he had ever put any pressure. Weeks after ending the shuttle diplomacy , he said after the call that he wants the Vatican to host and facilitate direct talks between Ukraine and Russia.
After his call with Putin, Trump told European leaders on a call that Putin does not want to end the war as he thinks he is winning, according to Wall Street Journal.
In a victory lap soon after the call, Putin said that he was willing to draft a memorandum with Ukraine for the peace process but maintained that “root causes” would have to be addressed for the war to end. — a euphemism for maximalist demands.
Putin has used “root causes” to refer to maximalist demands, such as the recognition of all Ukrainian provinces that Russia has claimed and other territories that it controls; the ouster of Zelenskyy and his administration; the amendment of the Ukrainian constitution to put limits on its military, include Russian in the nation’s cultural affairs, and rule out its membership of Nato; put limits on foreign military partnerships of Ukraine; etc.
Trump pleads, rebukes, and then accepts Putin’s terms
In his latest round of rebukes after Russia launched hundreds of missile and drone attacks, Trump said that Putin had gone “absolutely crazy” and he did not know “what the hell happened to Putin”.
Previously, Trump has said that he wondered whether Putin was dragging his feet in efforts to end the war. At no point, however, Trump took any action to pressurise Putin to make peace.
In rare moments in which the President of the United States publicly pleaded to the Russian leader, Trump has made at least two public pleas to Putin to stop killing Ukrainians. Putin has rejected both of his pleas. Yet Trump has not taken any action to pressurise Putin.
Instead, Trump has rewarded Putin with direct talks for a reset of trade and political ties between the two countries.
At every step, Trump has strengthened Putin’s hand. Firstly, he stopped the military and intelligence aid to Ukraine that allowed Russia to retake territory captured by Ukraine in Kursk. Then, he floated a peace proposal that contained some of the biggest Russian demands and practically amounted to an instrument of surrender for Ukraine. Putin, however, rejected the proposal and said that nothing less than complete acceptance of his maximalist demands would end the war.
Ian Bremmer, the president of geopolitical consultancy Eurasia Group, has said that “Russia said no cease-fire and Trump is increasingly washing his hands of it”. He said that the result is that the “support for Ukraine continues to recede in importance for the Americans” and that “what comes next is more fighting — expanded Russian attacks across Ukraine, fewer restraints on Ukraine targeting inside Russia”.
Even as Putin has rejected all of Trump’s pleadings, ceasefire offers, and peace proposals, all of which contain terms friendly to Russia, Trump has not yet taken any action to impose any cost on Trump. Instead, he has signalled that Ukraine and Europe are on their own. That’s the new reality to which Europe is adapting to as a longstanding ally has switched the allegiance under a new leader.
Madhur Sharma is a senior sub-editor at Firstpost. He primarily covers international affairs and India's foreign policy. He is a habitual reader, occasional book reviewer, and an aspiring tea connoisseur. You can follow him at @madhur_mrt on X (formerly Twitter) and you can reach out to him at madhur.sharma@nw18.com for tips, feedback, or Netflix recommendations