Erdogan sees a chance for Turkey’s EU accession in fall of Assad in Syria, 3 factors at work

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria might have given Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan the perfect leeway to push for its European Union membership.

Turkey has been an official candidate for the EU since 1999. However, the country’s track record on human rights and the rule of law, as well as its policy disputes with the bloc, have made the EU wary about Ankara’s accession.

In fact, last year, President Erdogan suggested that Turkey might “part ways with the EU if necessary,” indicating a potential shift in Turkey’s stance toward EU membership.

Despite their differences, Turkey and the EU have worked together on strategic issues such as climate, migration, security, counter-terrorism, and the economy.

Turkey has become an active player in the Syrian crisis after Assad’s fall and rebel takeover. Here are three points that might tell how Ankara is trying to seize the opportunity to become a member of the EU:

Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Turkey

European Commission’s Chief Ursula von der Leyen recently visited the Turkish capital of Ankara where she met Erdogan.

Erdogan said on Tuesday that an inclusive administration is needed in Syria and called on the European Union to support the return of Syrians who fled during the country’s 13-year civil war.

“We have seen that we agree on the establishment of an inclusive administration in Syria,” Erdogan said at a joint press conference with Ursula von der Leyen.

Von der Leyen pledged to intensify the EU’s “direct engagement” with Syria’s new Islamist-led rulers after the overthrow of Assad. Speaking after talks in Ankara with Erdogan, whose government is in constant dialogue with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Von der Leyen said the EU would increase contact with the rebel group that ousted Assad.

The meeting between the two leaders was in stark contrast to the EU chief’s previous visit to Turkey in 2021 when she was snubbed by Erdogan. That year, Von der Leyen was not given a chair to sit aside Erdogan and European Council President Charles Michel. In the meeting room, only two chairs were prepared, which were occupied by Erdoğan and Michel, leaving von der Leyen to sit on a sofa at a distance from the main discussion.

Turkey’s handling of Syrian refugees

Turkey has often been criticised for violating human rights and backsliding democracy. However, its handling of Syrian refugees after Assad’s fall has proven otherwise.

The country has been accommodating one of the largest populations of Syrian refugees globally, with numbers peaking at around 3.6 million in previous years. As of December 5, 2024, Turkey hosts approximately 3 million registered Syrian refugees under temporary protection status.

Recent developments have drawn Syrian refugees back home as they think their “own people” are now in charge of the country.

Last week, Syrians lined up at the Turkish border to head home, speaking of their expectations for a better life following what was for many a decade of hardship in Turkey.

Turkey, which hosts three million Syrians, has extended the opening hours of the Cilvegozu border gate near the Syrian city of Aleppo seized by rebels at the end of November.

EU has given $10 billion-plus a $1 billion top-up to Turkey for Syrians continuing to live in the country.

Erdogan renews calls for EU inclusion

Erdogan has urged the European Union to remove current restrictions and strengthen bilateral relations through a mutually beneficial “win-win formula.”

During his meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, Erdogan highlighted the need to modernize the Customs Union and simplify visa procedures for Turkish citizens.

He asserted, “Our shared interests should not be held hostage by the narrow agendas of certain members,” calling on the EU to take meaningful actions to enhance collaboration.