Dual-track diplomacy: How India balances US trade ambitions with strategic ties to Russia

India is orchestrating a delicate diplomatic and economic balancing act as it seeks to secure a trade deal with the United States while preserving its longstanding strategic partnership with Russia.

The trade negotiations, reportedly focused on reducing US tariffs on Indian goods by up to 50 per cent are unfolding amid intense scrutiny from Washington over India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had indicated India would cease buying Russian oil , a central demand from the US. Unlike prior categorical denials, New Delhi’s response on Thursday was notably cautious. Without explicitly mentioning Trump or Russia, India conveyed that it would increase US oil imports while continuing to secure cost-effective energy supplies.

WATCH: India Reacts After Trump Claims PM Modi Will Cut off Russian Oil

“India needs the trade deal with the US and it needs energy access at reasonable prices,” Ashok Malik, a partner at the Asia Group, told Bloomberg. “Economic statecraft would require Indian diplomacy to achieve both. And that is what India’s trying to do.”

India’s predicament is intensified by its reliance on Russian crude. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022, India has become a major buyer of discounted Russian oil, which currently constitutes about a third of its overall imports. Analysts note that an abrupt halt in purchases without alternative, economical sources could strain domestic refineries and push up energy costs for consumers.

Despite this, Indian refiners are preparing to scale down Russian oil imports modestly and ramp up purchases of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the US. A senior trade official in New Delhi said India could boost US oil imports by as much as $15 billion, signalling a willingness to align with Washington’s strategic priorities while preserving energy security.

Trump has repeatedly criticised India for buying Russian oil, arguing it helps fund President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine and undermines Western efforts to isolate Moscow. Yet this week, he adopted a more conciliatory tone, acknowledging that while India may not halt Russian oil purchases immediately, New Delhi could resume them once the conflict ends. The US leader said Modi had given assurances that India would eventually comply with Washington’s requests.

The strategic calculus extends beyond energy. India’s trade relationship with the US is pivotal, with the country seeking to reduce tariffs of up to 50 per cent on key exports as part of ongoing negotiations. Modi and Trump have held multiple recent discussions on the matter, with a New Delhi delegation currently in Washington exploring the possibility of clinching a deal as early as next month.

“The narrative has shifted dramatically from two months ago, when it seemed like the talks had stalled,” Shumita Deveshwar, chief economist at GlobalData, told Bloomberg. “There’s tangible hope now that a deal will be struck.”

For India, the stakes are profound. Maintaining strong ties with Russia is crucial for its defence and strategic interests, given Moscow’s long-standing role as a supplier of military hardware and technology. At the same time, deepening economic and trade links with the US, India’s largest export market, is essential to sustaining growth and investment flows.

“The Modi government is effectively pursuing dual-track diplomacy,” Malik noted. “On one hand, it signals cooperation with Washington to secure a beneficial trade deal. On the other, it cautiously preserves energy and strategic partnerships with Russia.”

As Indian refiners and policymakers adjust to this complex reality, global observers are attentive. Analysts caution that any misstep could jeopardise either energy security or critical economic gains. For now, India’s approach appears calibrated to preserve equilibrium, buying time to reconcile Washington’s trade ambitions with Moscow’s strategic importance.

“The balancing act is delicate, but it is a pragmatic reflection of India’s geopolitical and economic priorities,” said a senior official in New Delhi. “The goal is to avoid forcing a choice between two essential partners.”

As the New Delhi team continues discussions in Washington, global observers are watching whether India can thread the needle, satisfying Trump’s demands while protecting its strategic and economic imperatives. The outcome could reshape global trade patterns and energy flows, reflecting India’s growing influence on the international stage.