Drones to missiles, how Iran's biggest attacks on Israel this year played out

After Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Tuesday, the yearslong shadow war between the two nations is on the verge of spilling over into a full-fledged direct war.

For only the second time ever, Iran on Tuesday attacked Israel with more than 100 missiles that rained down on most of Israel, sending around 10 million Israelis to bomb shelters for cover. The attack was much bigger than the one earlier this year.

In April, Iran attacked Israel with more 600 missiles, drones, and rockets. The US, British, French, Jordanian, and Saudi militaries joined Israel in beating back that attack, which came after days of warnings and did not cause any real damage.

In last night’s attacks, however, there were no such publicised warnings. The attack was also bigger in scope as while fewer projectiles were launched, they were much more potent and many of them appear to have made it through the Israeli air defence systems.

Here is how the Iranian attacks on Israel have played out this year.

Iran attacks with 180 missiles, US helps Israel in defence

Iran launched around 180 missiles at Israel on Tuesday evening, according to the Israeli military.

While most of these missiles were shot down by the multi-layered Israeli air defence systems and US Navy ships deployed in the region, some of them appeared to have made through and struck their targets. While no casualties have yet been reported in Israel, a Palestinian man has been killed in West Bank from the falling shrapnel of an Iranian missile.

The Iranian barrage came in two waves and “several hits were identified, and the damage is being assessed”, Axios quoted officials as saying.

In a statement after the attack was launched, Iran’s military chief Mohammad Bagheri said on state television that the missiles targeted military bases in Nevatim, Hatzerim, and Tel Nof, and external intelligence agency Mossad’s headquarters. He added that Iran deliberately did not attack civilian sites.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the Supreme Leader’s personal military and intelligence force, said separately that the attack was a response to Israel assassinations of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in July and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah last week.

How Iran’s attack last night was different from April’s attack

Iran’s attack on Israel last night was different than the one in April.

For one, even though Iran launched less than a third projectiles this time, it was far more intense in scope. Iran deployed some of the deadliest missiles in arsenal.

In April, the Israeli military said that Iran launched more than 600 projectiles: around 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 350 rockets. These were not as sophisticated as one’s launched last night. These drones, missiles, and rockets took hours to reach Israel in several waves and thus Israel and partners had much more time to organise the defence.

Last night, however, the attack comprised entirely of ballistic missiles that began raining down on Israel within 12 minutes.

The New York Times reported that Iran used Fattah and Kheibar Shekan missiles in the attack, which are the most advanced in its arsenal and have never been used before in an attack.

The two missiles are highly maneuverable and capable of flying at extremely fast speeds, according to The Times.

This attack was also different from the one in April in the sense that there was no advanced public information. In April, the United States and Israel had publicised the intelligence regarding an imminent Iranian attack for weeks. It is understood that Iran had conveyed to the United States indirectly that it would soon launch an attack so US-Israel defences could be ready and not much damage is caused, which makes way for an off-ramp.

This time, there was no such advance warning. Axios reported just hours ahead of the attack that the United States believed an Iranian attack was imminent. It reported that the United States shared the intelligence of an imminent attack in the afternoon while the attack took place in the evening.

Throughout Thursday, US President Joe Biden held meetings and reviewed the preparations to beat the Iranian barrage, as per the report.

Compared to April when such intelligence was publicised for days, the short window this time suggests Iran did not intend to give Israel and the United States much time to prepare. Nevertheless, the US-Israeli militaries were prepared. This also means that Israel is now more empowered to retaliate strongly against Iran and chances of avoiding an escalatory spiral are bleak.

In a statement following the Iranian barrage, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran had made a “big mistake” and would pay for it.

“Iran made a big mistake tonight — and it will pay for it. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and to retaliate against our enemies,” said Netanyahu.

Invoking Haniyeh and Nasrallah, who were killed by Israel, Netanyahu sent out a warning to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

“Sinwar and Deif did not understand this; neither did Nasrallah or Mohsen. Apparently, there are those in Tehran who do not understand this either. They will,” said Netanyahu.