It was just about nine months back when Italy, a G8 country, had to eat humble pie and had to return its two marines to India for standing trial for the murder of two Indian fishermen in the seas near Kerala in February 2012. Now, it may well be the turn of the United States, the world’s sole superpower, to first trigger a completely avoidable diplomatic outrage and then eat crow. The US has bitten off more than it could chew in the Devyani Khobragade case. Like in the case of Italian marines, India has acted swiftly and decisively with the US in the Devyani episode. If India continues to walk its talk and bamboozle the Americans with an unprecedented spate of tit-for-tat reactions in the nearly 75-year-old relationship between the two countries, there is a very strong possibility of the Americans heading to the same fate met by the Italians in March this year. [caption id=“attachment_1295603” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  PTI[/caption] The Americans have ticked off the Indians at a wrong time – and in the process have given a new ray of hope for the Congress-led UPA government at a time when general elections are just about four months away. But notice the crowning irony here. The US factor played an important role in the Congress electoral fortunes during the fag end of UPA 1. That time it was Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s love for the US and his zealous role in navigating the Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation agreement to its consummation because of which he put his very government at stake and defied the nay-saying Left parties. This time at the fag end of UPA 2, there is no love lost between the world’s most powerful democracy (the US) and the world’s largest and most populous democracy (India). On the contrary, right now the two governments are engaged in bitter diplomatic sparring. The last time Manmohan Singh had batted for his personal pride was over the much larger issue of the nuclear deal, which though consummated, is far from implementation though it has been five years. But that is a different story and different dynamics are at work. This time he is gunning for national pride on an arguably much smaller issue where the Americans may be legally correct but are blatantly politically incorrect. In both the cases, the US factor has emerged as a potential game changer in Indian domestic politics, though for entirely opposite reasons. Manmohan Singh in particular and the Congress-led UPA government in general won’t be wrong in sensing a whale of an opportunity just ahead of the crucial general elections. No ruling party can afford to let go this political opportunity and the UPA has predictably grabbed this chance with both its hands for lifting its sagging political fortune. For this reason, the UPA’s next move or moves on the chessboard are bound to be bolder. After all, in this queer chess game between India and the US Devyani has emerged as the queen for the Indian side. It is not for nothing that External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid used some very strong words while speaking on the Devyani issue in parliament on Wednesday. He said the Indian diplomat was trapped in a conspiracy, that the incident had not happened in a day but there was ‘history’ behind it, and that he would not return to the House till Devyani was brought back to India with full dignity. But it will not be easy for India to bring the Americans to their knees in the Devyani case, a feat India achieved nine months ago with Italy over the marines issue. The Americans will not be affected much by Indian retaliatory measures like revoking the identity cards of US consular personnel and their families, rescinding airport passes, freezing US embassy imports of liquor and other goods and initiating a comprehensive investigation into salaries paid to Indian staff members at four American consulates in India and as domestic help, as well as those teaching at American schools in the country. Washington must, of course, have been taken aback with these retaliatory steps by the Indians. But the Americans won’t be really rattled by these. What must have jolted the Americans is the master stroke by India – removing security barricades from in front of the US embassy in New Delhi. This will expose their soft belly. The Americans are paranoid about the safety and security of their diplomats and officials all over the globe. The Indian step has denuded them of security cover – apart from robbing them of their clout. Though the Indian government has made it clear that security of all foreign missions, including of the US, is its prime responsibility, the American security establishment must have been having sleepless nights since Tuesday (when India suddenly made this move). But the question is: will this and other Indian steps be enough to make the Americans throw in the towel? Straws in the wind indicate the contrary. Salman Khurshid’s remark about ‘conspiracy’ in L’ Affaire Devyani Khobragade is suggestive of a long haul. What muddies the waters further is that the husband and two children of Khobragade’s domestic help Sangeeta Richard flew to New York on December 10, two days before Devyani’s arrest. Indians see it as a “distinctively odd” coincidence and suspect the US government’s complicity in this; especially after Sangeeta Richard went absconding in June. The maid continues to remain in the US despite that the fact the Indian embassy has cancelled her official passport. Moreover, India is livid that the US authorities did not bother to even inform the head of India’s New York mission about orders given for the arrest of Devyani last week. All these actions seem to be indicative of the US pursuing a well thought of pre-planned strategy. However, the American scriptwriters who choreographed the Devyani episode apparently did not account for a strong and swift retaliation by India. After all, the Americans have been doing this routinely to prominent Indians – not just stars like Shahrukh Khan, Salman Khan and Aamir Khan but also to political dignitaries like former President APJ Abdul Kalam, former Defence Minister George Fernandes and serving Indian ambassadors and top diplomats. The Americans never imagined that the Indian government which routinely allowed itself to be like a doormat in innumerable cases of humiliation would act so decisively in the case of a little known mid-level diplomat and the whole of India, cutting across the party lines, would erupt in support. It is a matter of when, and not if, the Americans blink first. They picked a wrong time to tick off India. The Americans are alienating an avowed “strategic partner” with which they have a $ 100 billion bilateral trade. What a pity!
The US has bitten off more than it could chew in the Devyani Khobragade case.
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Written by Rajeev Sharma
Consulting Editor, First Post. Strategic analyst. Political commentator. Twitter handle @Kishkindha. see more