Devyani affair: Get ready for round two of diplomatic war

The battle lines have been drawn between India and the United States over L’Affaire Devyani Khobragde. A second phase of this battle is all set to begin soon. The new phase promises to be a behind-the-scenes battle which is to be fought diplomatically between New Delhi and Washington. The US State Department has said three things to warrant a new phase of the diplomatic tug of war to be unleashed between the two democracies – one, the most powerful; and the other most populous and largest. One, the US would neither drop charges against Devyani nor apologise to India for the unfortunate episode. Two, even if India’s move of transferring Devyani to the Permanent Mission of India in New York to bestow on her full diplomatic immunity under the US rules (and still there is a big ‘if’), this immunity will be in effect from the date her change of status is okayed by the State Department. In other words, this means that the visa fraud case against her shall remain alive. Three, Secretary of State John Kerry has no plans to speak on phone to his Indian counterpart External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid and no such conversation has even been scheduled. The bafflingly hard stance taken by the State Department seems to have punctured the hopes for a face-saving compromise that the two sides could have easily clinched, but the American babus, on the contrary, have chosen to do the contrary. [caption id=“attachment_1300197” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Devyani Khobragade, India’s deputy consul general. AP[/caption] The new phase of India-US diplomatic row promises to be messier as it leaves India with a two option scenario: to eat a humble pie and throw in the towel or to go hammer and tongs at the Americans and take the diplomatic battle to its logical conclusion. The former scenario is neither feasible nor practical. The election-bound UPA government will not like to commit a sure political hara-kiri by throwing in the towel at this stage. Therefore, the only option left for the UPA government and India is to step up the gas on the Americans; but how? One thing is quite clear as of now. There can only be a political solution to the Devyani row. All other routes – legal, social or official – will inevitably lead to dead ends. There has to be a high-level communication between the two governments to defuse the crisis. This cannot be at the highest level as that will further complicate matters at this stage and would inevitably lead to the two sides to delineate their respective positions, which would be cast in stone. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s intervention at this stage may well prove to be disastrous. He can pick up the phone and dial President Barack Obama and that may well be the end of the matter. But that would be a naïve approach, best avoided by India. It would be like a litigant jumping the gun and knocking at the doors of the Supreme Court when he still had the privilege of exercising several options in between. In this context, the State Department’s spokesperson’s contention that Kerry has no plans to speak to Khurshid and that such a conversation has not even been scheduled is to be taken with a pinch of salt. That is because it is at this level that the two sides can hope to resolve the issue. How many times has it happened in the Indo-US bilateral relations history when the US Secretary of State (number three in the American protocol after President and Vice President) has tried to reach out to the Indian External Affairs Minister but the Indian minister has expressed his unavailability?! This writer cannot recall a single instance of this nature. But then this is what happened precisely. Kerry called up and indicated his desire to reach out to Khurshid, who happened to be in a private party in Gurgaon at the relevant time. Khurshid rightly expressed his unavailability as this is one conversation he could not afford to enter into off-the-cuff. Conversations between foreign ministers are serious business and require serious preparatory work and solitude. Khurshid had neither at his disposal and said he would call back. Kerry was on an official tour in Asia at the relevant time and the window suggested by Khurshid clashed with his travel plans. So, he did the next best thing possible and spoke with National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon, a career diplomat and a former foreign secretary. One should not make much of the State Department spokesperson’s assertion that Kerry has no plans to speak to Khurshid and that such a conversation is not even scheduled. But then foreign offices worldwide do not go about with scheduled conversations only. Therefore, going by the pragmatic nature of international diplomacy, the Indians know that the State Department spokesperson’s assertions/averments/statements are not the last word and the real picture often changes in a jiffy. Yet, presuming that Kerry does not call up Khurshid in the next few days and the Devyani episode threatens to spin out of control, what should India do? Here are a few ways wherein India can make it difficult for the Americans. These pertain to the retaliatory measures India has already taken vis a vis the American diplomats and staff deployed in India. One such crucial step pertains to India demanding that the US must furnish all details about the salaries/incomes of the American diplomats and staff and their spouses present in India. This is a sure trap as many American diplomats and their staff have their spouses working in India, formally or informally. India can very well pin down these Americans on questions whether they had necessary visas for pursuing these activities and whether they have been declaring their incomes and paying income tax as per the Indian rules. The course of this financial investigation against the Americans is bound to be akin to traveling on a mined road for them and many American diplomats and their staff deployed in India would inevitably end up at the wrong side of the Indian laws. India has to do nothing as of now and wait for the outcome of the financial investigations it has ordered against the American diplomats and staff deployed in this country. India has no need to indulge in any heroics as of now. The US will come round to a political solution by and by. Behind-the-scene diplomacy and politics will be the order of the say in Indo-US bilateral relations in the coming days. After all, the two sides have much at stake diplomatically and strategically which cannot be sacrificed at the altar of egos of a few individuals or officials. Watch this space. The writer is a Firstpost columnist and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.