Death toll in Gaza in the first 9 months of war 40% higher than official records: Lancet study

The death toll in Gaza in the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war is 40 per cent higher than what the Palestinian health ministry has officially recorded, research published in the Lancet medical journal has revealed.

The study aimed to estimate the number of fatalities resulting from Israel’s air and ground operations in Gaza from October 2023 to the end of June 2024.

Researchers concluded that approximately 64,260 people died from traumatic injuries during this time, with 59.1 per cent identified as women, children, and individuals over 65 years old.

Meanwhile, the Palestinian region’s health ministry lodged a death toll of 37,877 up to June 30 last year, almost half of what the study estimated.

How was the study conducted?

Researchers based their study on numbers published by the Gaza Health Ministry online where relatives of the deceased reported their loved ones’ deaths. They also examined obituaries posted on social media and found that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza up to 30 June 2024.

The study estimated a death toll of 64,260, suggesting that the health ministry had underreported fatalities by 41 per cent up to that point. This figure accounted for 2.9 per cent of Gaza’s prewar population, equating to roughly one in every 35 residents, according to the report.

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Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the lead author of the study told AFP, “We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital.”

“Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed,” he added.

Israel reacts

A senior Israeli official commenting on the findings of the study said that the army went to great lengths to ensure there were minimal civilian casualties.

“No other army in the world has ever taken such wide-ranging measures,” the official said.

He added, “These include providing advance warning to civilians to evacuate, safe zones and taking any and all measures to prevent harm to civilians. The figures provided in this report do not reflect the situation on the ground.”