COVID-19 lockdowns around the world may have prevented 531 million new infections: Study
With the very low levels of viral transmission seen in some countries, the pandemic would eventually die out in lockdown scenarios, the studies conclude.
Two new studies have pointed to the effectiveness of lockdowns around the world, claiming that proper implementation in some countries has reduced the transmission of coronavirus and controlled its rapid spread, saving millions of people from being infected in the still-raging global pandemic.
In the first study, published in Nature on 8 June, researchers from the University of California, Berkeley report that shutdowns prevented or delayed an estimated 531 million coronavirus infections across six countries — China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France and the United States. A second study by scientists at Imperial College London estimates that shutdowns saved about 3.1 million lives across 11 European countries.
Interventions to reduce the coronavirus’ spread in Europe have brought down infection rates down by an average of 81 percent compared to pre-intervention times, the Nature report claims.
Indians sit inside a city bus in Ahmedabad, 10 June, Image: AP
Related Articles
In all the countries examined, the value for R naught — an estimate for how many people an infected person might transmit the virus to — was less than one. This means that each infected person passed the virus on to less than one person, on average. With the level of viral transmission as low as this, the pandemic would eventually die out in lockdown scenarios, the study concludes.
Back when the cases of COVID-19 first started to spike in early 2020, governments of countries like China, the United States, and Italy put measures in place – social distancing, shutting shops, schools, restaurants, and restricting travel. While the shutdowns disrupted economies globally and came with job losses and pay cuts, it was unclear how effective these measures really were at what they were meant to do: curb the virus’ spread.
“These control measures have worked,” Alun Lloyd, a mathematical epidemiologist at North Carolina State University in Raleigh, who was not involved in either study, told ScienceNews. "(Lockdowns) have saved or delayed many infections and deaths.”
That said, with countries now easing restrictions and moving to reopen the economy, residents of these very same countries could be looking at a new surge of positive cases, experts say.
An audience waits for the beginning of a performance of Berthold Brecht’s 'Baal' during a public rehearsal of the Berliner Ensemble theater in Berlin, on 9 June 2020. The theater will start again on 11 July 2020, with public performances after the lockdown because of the coronavirus outbreak, but under safety restrictions and in the courtyard of the building. Image: AP Photo/Markus Schreiber
"There is a very real risk if mobility goes back up there could be a second wave coming reasonably soon, in the next month or two," said Dr Samir Bhatt reportedly said at a news briefing on 8 June.
"We’re very far from herd immunity," Dr Seth Flaxman, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, added. “The risk of a second wave happening if all interventions and all precautions are abandoned is very real."
Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from an infectious disease on the prowl, which takes effect when a large percentage of the population in a region or country has become immune to an infection – either via vaccination or previous infection/exposure to the infection. Therefore, it cuts the risk of transmission among the population at large, offering a degree of protection to individuals who are not immune to it.
So far, around 5 percent of the population in hard-hit places like Italy and Spain have been infected, according to the researchers. They estimate that around 70 percent of people would need to be immune to achieve herd immunity.
also read
End of Work from Home? Are TCS employees being forced to come to office?
TCS has begun delivering notes to staff members who don't put in at least 12 days of in-office work each month. The IT company reportedly threatened employees with disciplinary action if they failed to abide by its new policy. The firm is just one of the many that has put an end to work from home
Explained: How the World Health Organisation aims to fight pandemics in the future
Negotiations on new rules for dealing with pandemics are underway at the World Health Organisation. A new pact is a priority for WHO chief who called it a ‘generational commitment that we will not go back to the old cycle of panic and neglect’ at the UN agency's annual assembly
Former UK PM Boris Johnson to face probe again after new 'Partygate' claims
The Metropolitan Police in London announced that it was 'assessing' fresh material received in the previous week regarding 'potential breaches' of coronavirus guidelines in Downing Street between June 2020 and May 2021