Cold War 2.0? Another Cuban crisis brews as Russia-US tensions flare in Caribbean

Russian naval frigate Admiral Gorshkov and the nuclear-powered submarine Kazan, along with a support tugboat and a fuel ship have docked in Cuba near the United States, evoking memories of Cold War tensions. Their arrival serves as a stark reminder of Russia’s capability to operate close to American shores as US President Joe Biden signs a 10-year security pact with Ukraine.

The decision by Moscow to deploy warships in the Island nation comes after Washington and other Western allies of Ukraine allowed Kyiv to use their supplied weapons on targets within Russia, amidst a renewed Russian offensive in north-eastern Kharkiv and a shortage of troops and ammunition. The timing of the Russian fleet’s visit is important considering that the Joe Biden administration allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-provided weapons against select military targets inside Russia.

Following the development,  Canadian navy patrol ship sailed into Havana early on June 14, just hours after the United States announced a fast-attack submarine had docked at its Guantanamo naval base on Cuba, both vessels on the heels of Russian warships that arrived on the island earlier this week. The confluence of Russian, Canadian and U.S. vessels in Cuba – a Communist-ruled island nation just 160 km (100 miles) from Florida – served up a reminder of old Cold War tensions and of current fraught ties between Russia and Western nations over the Ukraine war.

However, both the U.S. and Cuba have said the Russian warships pose no threat to the region. Russia has also characterized the arrival of its warships in allied Cuba as routine.

The recent development also comes as a reminder of the ‘Cold War’ era, when the deployment of Soviet nuclear missiles in the Caribbean led to the 1962 Cuban crisis that brought the world perilously close to nuclear conflict. This time, a similar crisis seems to be rebirthed with Russian warships entering the island nation.

Why Cuba matters

While the relationship between Havana and Moscow is not as tight as it was during the Cold War, both nations maintain a friendly stance, despite recent reports of Cuban nationals being trafficked for Russia’s military activities. They share strong criticism of the sanctions imposed by each other and the expansion of NATO.

Havana has also supported Russia’s right to “self-defense” against NATO following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, although it refrained from outright endorsing the action. Given its proximity to the U.S., Cuba serves as a strategic location from which Russia can conduct electronic warfare against American targets and gather intelligence by intercepting signals from U.S. Navy and command centers, according to Pietrobon.

The arrival of the Russian naval vessels in Cuba, situated just 160 kilometres (100 miles) from the U.S. naval air station in Key West, Florida, where America has a naval air station.

What is the Cuban Missile Crisis?

The October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis marked a perilous face-off between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, representing the closest brinkmanship to nuclear conflict between the superpowers. Cuba, a key ally of the Soviet Union at the time, became the focal point when Moscow retaliated against U.S. missile deployments in Turkey by stationing ballistic missiles on the island, escalating tensions to a critical level.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Cuba continued its diplomatic ties with Russia, with relations deepening significantly after a pivotal meeting in 2022 between Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

While recent developments in the Caribbean echo historical echoes, they differ fundamentally from the Cuban Missile Crisis of over six decades ago. In 1962, the crisis unfolded after the U.S. uncovered Soviet ballistic nuclear missile sites in Cuba, triggering a 13-day standoff that brought both nations perilously close to nuclear war. The crisis was defused when the Kennedy administration negotiated with the Kremlin for the removal of the missiles from Cuba, averting a potential catastrophe.

Why Russia sent its warship to Cuba

The Kazan nuclear-powered submarine has garnered significant attention with its arrival. Although it is not armed with nuclear weapons, it possesses Kalibr cruise missiles capable of striking targets up to 2,500 kilometres away, potentially equipped with nuclear warheads. The Admiral Gorshkov is equipped with advanced Zircon hypersonic missiles, designed for deployment on Russian cruisers, frigates, and submarines. These missiles have the capability to engage both naval vessels and ground targets, boasting speeds nine times faster than the speed of sound and a range exceeding 1,000 kilometres (over 620 miles), according to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

 Russia-Cuba: A tale of enduring friendship

Cuba has remained Moscow’s closest ally while Russia is counted among Havana’s key “strategic partners.” Though Cuba’s ties with other allies like China and Venezuela have waned, its relationship with Russia has reached its strongest point since the Cold War.

Cuba’s stance on the international stage regarding Russia has also evolved with time with the island nation has consistently abstained from United Nations resolutions condemning the Russian aggression of Ukraine. Recently, Cuba’s rhetoric has shifted from a neutral tone to one that is openly supportive of Russia. During a visit to Moscow last month, Cuban President Miguel Diáz-Canel expressed his wishes for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “success with the special military operation.” Last year, Diáz-Canel also drew parallels between the sanctions imposed on Cuba and Russia, attributing both to a common adversary — the “Yankee empire.”

From Cuba’s perspective, Russia plays a crucial role in ensuring domestic and economic stability in the isolated island nation. In 2014, Moscow waived off 90% of Cuba’s $35.2 billion debt owed to the Soviet Union.

US vs Russia: A long-drawn confrontation

The United States and its allies have been in confrontation after Russia attacked Ukraine. The traditional adversaries between the two power blocs and their allies have laid the foundation to lobby against Russia by seizing assets and imposing series of sanctions. The Cold War era’s allies of both countries are fighting either a direct or indirect battle.

With Russian President Vladimir Putin showing no sign of pulling back troops shelling Ukrainian cities, and with the United States and Europe vowing to provide arms to Ukrainian forces and even allow Ukraine to attack deep inside Russia. Now, the tension between the two countries has flared as the Russian warships and nuclear-powered submarines entered longtime ally Cuba which is in proximity to the US.

During the height of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union amassed over 60,000 nuclear warheads, creating a standoff that posed the threat of mutual, and potentially global annihilation. This peril was exacerbated by the fact that both superpowers maintained their nuclear arsenals on high alert, ready for immediate launch. This situation remains true for the U.S. and Russia even today. However, the subsequent era of arms control agreements and the eventual conclusion of the Cold War significantly alleviated tensions between the two nations and led to substantial reductions in their nuclear stockpiles.