 "A truck transports a container next to a cargo vessel at a port in Qingdao, Shandong province, China. Source: REUTERS / FILE.")
China’s exports rose 12.7 per cent in October from a year earlier, the fastest monthly growth in more than two years, according to customs data released Thursday.
The report came a day after former President Donald Trump won Tuesday’s election, gaining a second term as president. Trump has pledged to increase tariffs on imports from China to 60 per cent, adding to uncertainty over the outlook for exports to the US.
It showed imports fell 2.3 per cent in October from a year earlier, while China’s trade surplus rose to $95.7 billion in October, up from $81.7 billion in September.
Exports far surpassed analyst’s estimates of about 5.5 per cent growth and outpaced September’s growth of just 2.4 per cent. It was the fastest expansion since July 2022.
The growth in October’s exports signalled sustained demand for Chinese goods abroad, while demand in the domestic market remains subdued.
Economists say that the effect of higher tariffs under Trump would not take effect until next year.
“Although Trump’s proposed tariffs would hurt the export sector, their impact would be less significant than many fear –- we think they could lower export volumes by around 3 per cent – and may not be felt until the second half of 2025,” Zichun Huang of Capital Economics said in a report.
“Meanwhile, Trump’s return could create a short-term boost to Chinese exports as US importers increase their purchases to get ahead of the tariffs,” Huang said.
Beijing is expected to unveil a long-awaited stimulus package on Friday during a top legislative body meeting aimed at revitalizing the economy amid deflationary pressures and lackluster consumer spending.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsChina’s leaders have been struggling to rev up the economy since the COVID-19 pandemic ended.
The US and Europe recently raised tariffs on China’s exports of electric vehicles and other products, darkening the outlook for China’s trade as an engine of growth. A prolonged slump in the property industry also remains a major drag on the Chinese economy.
Chinese policymakers have already announced a slew of measures to boost the economy, including frontloading 200 billion yuan ($28.2 billion) from next year’s budget for spending and construction projects.