China on edge: Scientists warn of growing magnitude-8 earthquake threat

A team of Chinese seismologists have warned of a series of deadly Myanmar-like earthquakes across China and neighbouring regions. In a study published just days before the devastating magnitude 7.9 earthquake hit Myanmar , the scientists have identified patterns linking seismic cycles to fluctuations in the Earth’s rotation. The new revelation has raised questions whether the Earth’s tectonic stress fields are entering a dangerous new phase.

The study, led by senior engineer Zhu Hongbin with the Beijing Earthquake Agency, was published on March 20 in the Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics.

Seismic data of over 150 years analysed

The researchers analysed seismic data of over 150 years starting 1879. They identified six major earthquake “active periods” in China and adjacent regions.

Zhu and his colleagues found out that “each period correlates with shifts in the Earth’s rotational speed – measured through changes in the length of a day (LOD) – and corresponding tectonic stress realignments,” reported South China Morning Post.

The current, sixth phase, targets region along the Bayan Har block’s periphery, with researchers cautioning that stress fields may now pivot northeast, increasing the risk in Sichuan, Yunnan and the Himalayan front, the report added.

“The region may currently be entering the nascent phase of a new seismic active period,” scientists said in a statement.

The study points to growing pressure building up in locked sections of the Longmenshan Fault in southwest China — the same fault that caused the devastating 2008 Sichuan earthquake. It also highlights the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis, where GPS data shows that India’s northward movement is picking up speed.

The earthquake in Myanmar took place during a transitional phase in Earth’s rotation (known as Length of Day or LOD). This timing, combined with the buildup of stress in the region, placed it squarely in one of the zones already identified as high-risk due to increased northeast-oriented tectonic pressure.

Despite alarming observations made in the peer-reviewed study, sceptics maintain that global seismic activity in 2025 remains below historical averages.

“There’s no evidence Earth has entered a shaking mode,” Gao Mengtan, a senior researcher with the China Earthquake Administration, was quoted as saying by Chinese media.

“Seismic activities this year are actually quieter than before,” he added.

(With inputs from agencies)