China emissions could fall in 2024 on renewables jump

According to a recent research, China’s carbon emissions are expected to decline in 2024 since historic development in renewable energy generation is now adequate to meet rising demand. China, the biggest producer of greenhouse gases in the world, has rejected requests for a more aggressive carbon neutrality aim than its present 2060 plan. According to the International Energy Agency, between 2023 and 2050, the nation is expected to contribute 45% of the world’s emissions from fossil fuel assets. However, China has also been adding renewable energy capacity at a dizzying rate; according to an analysis published on Monday by the UK-based climate website Carbon Brief, new solar added in 2023 alone would equal all of the installed capacity in the US. “Newly installed solar, wind, hydro and nuclear capacity added in 2023 alone will generate an estimated 423 terawatt hours (TWh) per year, equal to the total electricity consumption of France,” the report by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air added. The massive ramp-up in installation and a projected rebound in hydropower generation as drought recedes and reservoirs refill “are all but guaranteed to push fossil-fuel electricity generation and CO2 emissions into decline in 2024,” the report said. That decline could be sustained because “the rate of low-carbon energy expansion is now sufficient to not only meet but exceed the average annual increase in China’s demand for electricity overall,” the analysis argues. The report is based on official figures and commercial data. However, China continues to expand its coal power capacity, and the report warns that is “setting the scene for a showdown between the country’s traditional and newly emerging interest groups”. Renewable energy growth “threatens the interests of the coal industry and local governments with a high exposure to the coal sector,” Carbon Brief said. “These stakeholders could be expected to resist the transition, raising concerns about potential roadblocks.” Chinese and American climate officials met earlier this week for talks ahead of this month’s COP28 discussions, with both sides praising constructive talks, without offering details.