Canada: 4 months after election upset, Poilievre eyes Parliament return with Alberta bypoll

Four months after suffering a stunning defeat in the federal election, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is seeking political redemption in a by-election that could shape both his immediate future and his party’s direction.

In April, Poilievre lost his long-held Ottawa-area seat while the Conservatives, despite leading in national polls for months, failed to unseat the Liberals. The loss sidelined him from Parliament during its short spring sitting, leaving Andrew Scheer to temporarily lead the opposition against Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Now, Poilievre is running in one of the safest Conservative ridings in Canada — Battle River–Crowfoot in rural Alberta. The seat was vacated by Conservative MP Damien Kurek, who stepped aside so that his leader could have a path back to the House of Commons. Kurek, who secured 83 per cent of the vote in April, has described his departure as temporary and has pledged to run again in the next general election.

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The outcome of Monday’s by-election is almost certain to return Poilievre to Parliament. Yet, the size of his victory margin will be closely scrutinised, as it could influence a looming leadership review in January. For Conservatives, this contest is about more than filling a vacant seat — it is a test of whether their leader can recover from electoral defeat and rebuild confidence within the party.

Alberta as a political lifeline

Poilievre’s choice of Battle River–Crowfoot reflects both his political vulnerability and his reliance on Alberta’s conservative heartland. The sprawling district, home to about 110,000 people, stretches across fields of canola and oilfields feeding into the Keystone pipeline. It also hosts one of Canada’s largest military bases. Here, conservatism runs deep, and candidates from the right routinely win by landslides, Politico reported.

But even in this stronghold, Poilievre’s candidacy has stirred unease. He is viewed by some locals as a parachute candidate, more concerned with salvaging his leadership than with representing small-town concerns. Residents accustomed to MPs with farming roots or visible community ties question whether an Ottawa insider who has lived outside Alberta for two decades can truly champion their issues.

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Independent candidate Bonnie Critchley, a veteran, has been particularly vocal, warning voters not to be “stunts” in Poilievre’s bid for survival.

Campaigning on local ground

To counter perceptions of detachment, Poilievre has shed his Ottawa persona, trading suits for jeans, polos and a cowboy hat. His campaign has focussed on grassroots outreach: door-knocking in small towns, holding coffee meetings in community halls and speaking directly to farmers and oil workers. His message has leaned heavily on the promise that having a party leader as a local MP gives the riding a louder voice in Ottawa.

The issues dominating his campaign reflect the priorities of the district. Farmers are struggling under Chinese tariffs on canola and Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods, which have driven up input costs. Oil producers continue to battle regulatory hurdles and many residents resent federal environmental policies such as electric vehicle mandates. Protecting gun rights and expanding resource development remain high on the agenda, Politico said.

Still, scepticism lingers. Some voters complain that the by-election was forced upon them unnecessarily after they had already chosen a candidate in April. Others feel that Poilievre’s attempt to return to Parliament through Alberta reflects opportunism more than commitment.

Broader stakes for Poilievre

Beyond local dynamics, the by-election carries national significance. Poilievre’s personal defeat in April left him weakened at a critical moment for his party. While Conservatives added dozens of seats nationwide, their leader was absent from Parliament, limiting his ability to challenge Carney directly.

Returning to the Commons before the fall session, scheduled to open September 15, would allow him to reassert his authority and begin reshaping his front bench. But even with a near-certain victory, questions remain about his long-term viability. His brash style and combative rhetoric, often compared to Donald Trump’s, alienated key voter blocs, particularly women.

The January leadership review looms as a decisive moment. Party members will evaluate not only the by-election result but also his broader strategy for making the Conservatives a credible alternative to the Liberals. While Poilievre has avoided saying whether his by-election performance will influence that outcome, it is clear that anything short of a commanding win would embolden his detractors, Politico said.

A distracted campaign and an unusual ballot

The Battle River–Crowfoot by-election is also unusual in another respect as more than 200 candidates are on the ballot, many linked to the Longest Ballot Committee, a protest movement against politicians’ control over election law. Their participation forced Elections Canada to introduce write-in ballots for the first time.

The main recognised parties have also fielded candidates, though none are expected to pose a serious challenge. The Liberals are running oil and gas executive Darcy Spady, the New Democrats have nominated Katherine Swampy and the People’s Party is represented by Jonathan Bridges.

Local trust versus national ambition

For Poilievre, the central challenge is balancing local trust with national ambition.

The by-election in Battle River–Crowfoot is poised to restore Poilievre to Parliament, giving him a platform to regroup after April’s defeat and prepare for a turbulent leadership review. Yet, the path back is far from uncomplicated. While he is expected to win handily, lingering doubts about his authenticity, his style and his priorities persist among both constituents and party members.