When Carney meets Sheinbaum, a worry for Canada and Mexico: How to shake hands without provoking Trump?

When Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrives in Mexico City to meet President Claudia Sheinbaum, the optics will matter as much as the outcomes. Both leaders face the challenge of showing unity in the face of Washington’s unpredictable tariff regime without appearing to forge an alliance designed to box the United States out.

Canadian officials are reportedly eager to highlight a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Mexico, while Sheinbaum’s team is cautious about signalling that the two are “ganging up” on Washington.

The meeting relates to a paradox that has long shaped North American diplomacy: Canada and Mexico rely heavily on the United States for trade and investment, yet both seek to hedge against US unpredictability by diversifying ties with each other. That diversification, however, must be done delicately, lest it draw Donald Trump’s ire in the midst of his renewed trade war.

Legacy of neglect

Canada and Mexico have often treated one another as afterthoughts. Graeme Clark, Canada’s former ambassador to Mexico, suggested that Ottawa historically underestimated the importance of cultivating bilateral relations with Mexico, instead focussing on reactions to Washington’s tariff threats and rhetoric. He argued that “ignoring Mexico” has been a recurring blind spot in Canadian foreign policy.

Indeed, the numbers tell the story. Merchandise trade between the two countries reached C$56 billion last year, but the imbalance is stark: C$47 billion of that was imports from Mexico, compared to only C$9 billion in Canadian exports.

Canadian companies have invested around C$50 billion in Mexico, largely in energy and mining. Despite these deepening ties, Mexico has often been seen in Ottawa through a stereotypical lens of beaches and fiestas rather than as one of the world’s major economies, Politico reported. Clark called this a “two-dimensional caricature” that has hindered serious policy engagement.

Carney’s unconventional visit

Carney’s Mexico trip is significant not just for its timing, but also for its departure from precedent. Canadian prime ministers usually engage with Mexican leaders only during the “Three Amigos” North American Leaders’ Summit. By making this a stand-alone visit, Carney signals that Mexico matters in its own right.

This follows his invitation to Sheinbaum to the G7 Summit in Alberta earlier this year — the first time a Mexican president attended such a Canadian gathering since Felipe Calderon addressed Parliament in 2010.

By contrast, Sheinbaum’s predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador never visited Canada in his six years in office. Carney’s efforts, then, are part of a broader campaign to repair trust after Canadian leaders last year floated the idea of cutting a direct trade deal with Washington, a suggestion that Mexico City saw as a betrayal, The National Herald reported.

Walking the tightrope with Trump

The heart of the challenge lies in avoiding the perception of forming a counter-bloc to the United States. Sheinbaum is keen to avoid that impression. Canadian officials, however, appear less concerned.

One senior Canadian government figure bluntly remarked before Politico that “you can’t gang up on the United States,” reflecting Ottawa’s confidence that closer ties with Mexico will not provoke Washington beyond what Trump’s tariff crusade has already stirred.

Still, memories linger in Mexico. During the last US-Mexico-Canada Agreement renegotiation, Mexican officials kept Canada in the room when Washington seemed ready to cut a bilateral deal.

When former Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau and Ontario Premier Doug Ford hinted after Trump’s reelection that they might pursue a US-only arrangement, Mexico saw it as a sign of mistrust. Carney’s current visit is partly designed to assure Sheinbaum that Canada values the trilateral framework and wants a stronger bilateral bond within it.

Shared economic pain

The urgency of the visit stems from the ongoing economic damage inflicted by Trump’s tariffs. Canada’s economy shrank in the second quarter with falling exports and business investment tied to trade uncertainty.

Key industries such as steel, aluminium, autos and forestry face pressure under Section 232 tariffs. Mexico, meanwhile, secured a 90-day tariff extension from Trump that Canada did not, fuelling perceptions in Ottawa that Mexico handles Washington with more agility.

Sheinbaum appears less rattled by Trump’s moves than Carney, partly because Mexico has grown accustomed to hostile rhetoric and tariff threats from Washington. Its leverage in the global auto industry and its low labour costs provide some cushion. Carney, on the other hand, faces rising political pressure at home to deliver quick wins in trade policy, especially as forecasts hint at a looming recession.

Building new pathways

Carney and Sheinbaum are expected to explore infrastructure investments that would allow the two countries to trade more directly, bypassing the United States in certain supply chains. Canadian officials have floated ideas about new port facilities in Mexico as part of this strategy.

Both leaders are also likely to focus on combating organised crime, including drug trafficking, firearms smuggling and human trafficking — issues that Trump has frequently cited as justifications for punitive tariffs.

Energy is another area of alignment. Canadian firms, such as Calgary-based TC Energy, are already playing a major role in Mexico’s infrastructure. Its recently completed 440-mile Southeast Gateway natural gas pipeline has been hailed by the Sheinbaum administration as a catalyst for economic growth in southern Mexico.

For Carney, these projects fit into his broader “major projects” initiative aimed at boosting infrastructure and jobs to support long-term growth.

A convergence of industrial strategies

There is also ideological alignment between Sheinbaum’s “Plan Mexico” industrial policy and Carney’s push to reduce dependence on what he has called an “unreliable” America.

Both leaders want to diversify their economies, strengthen domestic manufacturing and position their countries within supply chains for clean energy and critical minerals.

Politics of perception

Despite these areas of convergence, public perception remains a barrier. Former trade minister Mary Ng admitted that Canada and Mexico often took each other for granted during the Trump years treating the relationship as functional but uninspired.

Looking ahead to USMCA

The broader context for the visit is the looming renegotiation of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement. No dramatic announcements are expected from Carney’s Mexico visit. Instead, the visit serves as groundwork, shoring up bilateral trust ahead of difficult negotiations with Washington.

The symbolism of the meeting — a Canadian prime minister making Mexico a priority outside the traditional trilateral summit format — may prove as significant as any policy initiative.

Carney’s handshake with Sheinbaum will be scrutinised for its symbolism. For both leaders, the stakes are high. They must strengthen their countries’ economic resilience, diversify supply chains and invest in shared infrastructure — all while avoiding Trump’s wrath.

The question is whether both countries can deepen their partnership without triggering the very storm they hope to weather together.