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Can US, EU actually reach a trade deal? Trump says there's '50/50 chance or maybe less'

FP News Desk July 26, 2025, 12:29:24 IST

Brussels and Washington are reportedly nearing a potential agreement that could involve a 15 per cent US tariff on EU goods, with possible exemptions for key sectors

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US President Donald Trump sips Diet Coke from his wine glass after a toast, during a luncheon for world leaders at the 73rd session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, US, September 25, 2018. File Image/Reuters
US President Donald Trump sips Diet Coke from his wine glass after a toast, during a luncheon for world leaders at the 73rd session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, US, September 25, 2018. File Image/Reuters

US President Donald Trump on Friday (July 25) stated there was roughly a “50/50 chance, maybe less” of reaching an agreement with the European Union to lower import tariffs, as he spoke to reporters before departing the White House for Scotland.

Trump, aiming to reduce US trade deficits, has threatened punitive tariff increases on numerous countries unless they secure trade deals with Washington by August 1.

‘90 deals in 90 days’

His administration launched a “90 deals in 90 days” initiative in April, postponing higher duties, but has so far announced only five agreements, including with Britain, Japan, and the Philippines.

“I would say that we have a 50/50 chance, maybe less than that, but a 50/50 chance of making a deal with the EU,” Trump remarked.

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The EU’s 27 member states have tasked the European Commission with negotiating to avoid steep US tariffs, with Trump warning of 30 per cent levies if no deal is reached by the end of the month.

According to multiple diplomats, Brussels and Washington are nearing a potential agreement that could involve a 15 per cent US tariff on EU goods, with possible exemptions for key sectors.

EU readies retaliatory sanctions package

However, on Thursday, EU states approved a retaliatory package targeting $109 billion (93 billion euros) of US goods, set to take effect on August 7 if negotiations fail.

Trump claimed that most of the trade deals he sought were nearly finalised, though he clarified that his focus was on sending letters to impose tariffs on trading partners, not on negotiating comprehensive free trade agreements. He noted that tariffs, paid by importers rather than the exporting country, effectively act as a sales tax passed on to US consumers.

“I don’t want to hurt countries, but we’re going to send a letter out some time during the week, and it’s basically going to say, ‘You’re going to pay 10 percent, you’re going to pay 15 percent, you’re going to pay maybe less,’ I don’t know,” Trump explained.

He added that his negotiators were working “diligently” with EU counterparts but expressed frustration with Canada, threatening a 35 per cent tariff and stating, “we haven’t really had a lot of luck” in those talks.

Trump also mentioned that the US and China, its third-largest goods trading partner this year, have the “confines of a deal” in place.

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