As Trump, Starmer lean towards Israel against Iran, Xi and Putin join hands in opposition

As the United States and United Kingdom have leaned towards Israel and China and Russia have sided with Iran, the West Asia crisis appears to be turning into a confrontation between the two global blocs. But it is far from clear which side will come out on the top.

Except for the United States, no other world power has offered to side with one side in the conflict militarily. Despite being allies, China and Russia have not offered indication that they would get militarily involved to save Ayatollah Khamenei’s regime in Iran. The UK has indicated that it could join any US attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities in at least a supporting role.

Even though they cannot do much to help Iran, Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia, are trying to make the most of the ongoing conflict. They are pitching themselves as the alternative to the US-led world order. They are also trying to portray the Israeli war on Iran as an extension of the war in the Gaza Strip — a conflict whose toll has garnered Israel worldwide criticism.

In a telephonic call, Xi and Putin condemned the Israeli campaign against Iran and called it a breach of the United Nations Charter and international law.

Xi & Putin join hands for Iran — but stay away from war

Xi and Putin have indeed joined hands in support of Iran, but they have stood away from the war — unlike Trump who has indicated the US involvement in the war in support of Israel is imminent.

In an apparent message for Trump, Xi said that “major powers” that have a special influence on either side should work to “cool the situation, not the opposite”. Russia has also asked the United States to not join Israel in the war on Iran.

ALSO READ: As Netanyahu dares Khamenei, here’s timeline of Israel-Iran conflict

Ironically, even as Xi and Putin have asked Trump to stay out of the conflict, Putin is waging a war on Ukraine in which he is committed to the total subjugation of Ukraine and the destruction of Ukrainian nationhood. Xi is keeping the Russian war economy running. Xi himself has committed to the occupation and merger of the self-ruled island of Taiwan with China — forcefully if required.

As Russia is bogged down in the war on Ukraine and China is way too far and not interested in a military confrontation with the West, Iran cannot expect any direct help from either of its main allies — even as both allies milk the situation by trying to shape public opinion and establish themselves as a voice of reason against what they call a Western-sponsored unfair war.

Stakes are high for Russia & China

While the stakes for Khamenei are definitely existential, the stakes are quite high for Russia and China as well.

For a long time, Russia and China had formed an anti-Western bloc with North Korea and Iran. In West Asia, Iran was the fulcrum of the bloc in countering the influence of the United States and Israel. Iran had also been supported Russia in the war on Ukraine.

ALSO READ: Inside Netanyahu’s campaign to destroy Iran’s bunker nuclear sites

As Iran has been reduced to a shadow of its former self, Russia and China have lost a counterweight to the West in West Asia.

“The collapse of the current regime would be a significant blow and would generate a lot of instability in the Middle East, ultimately undermining Chinese economic and energy interests,” Andrea Ghiselli, a scholar of China’s relations in West Asia and North Africa, told The Daily Telegraph.

As for Russia, the degradation of Khamenei’s regime, even if short of an outright collapse, would mean the second setback within months in West Asia. Late last year, as opposition forces ousted longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Russia lost sway over the country. Russia had projected power along the southern flank of Nato through ports and airbases in Syria. With Assad’s ouster, Russia lost those footholds.