As GOP vs Democrats gridlock continues, will govt shutdown break first Trump presidency record?

The ongoing US government shutdown appears set to become the longest in the country’s history — and neither side appears to be willing to make a compromise to end it.

While President Donald Trump appears to be least bothered by the shutdown, Democrats remain firm on their healthcare funding-related red lines and maintain that any compromise on these fundamental demands will be mean a surrender

Unlike in 2018 when Trump yielded under public and political pressure to end the longest 35-day shutdown and Democrats agreed to a compromise on another three-day shutdown, there do not appear to be any efforts to reach a middle ground this time as both the sides are sticking to their positions.

Why Trump is not afraid to prolong shutdown

Unlike his first term, Trump now has absolute control over congressional Republicans and his base. Except for a handful of people who are increasingly becoming marginal, there is no one who can speak independently who could pressure him to make a compromise.

Even as several Republicans have disagreed with Trump’s weaponisation of the shutdown, they have voted as per his diktats.

Instead of a problem, Trump has seen the shutdown as an opportunity to continue his agenda to dismantle the federal government and wage political retribution.

More from World

Most Americans blame Trump & Republicans for govt shutdown but Democrats too face challenge: Survey How will Americans eat next month? Millions face food stamp cuts as shutdown drags on

During the shutdown, Trump has vowed to fire up to 4,000 government employees and shut down programmes that he has dubbed as Democratic. He has also cancelled around $11 billion in federal funding to states run by Democratic Party and cancelled another $8 billion in funds to clean energy projects.

Even as millions of Americans are at the risk of seeing their healthcare costs double or even quadrupole as a result of his policies, Trump is not bothered as he has a vice-like grip on his Maga supporters among whom he has a cult-like and who could never see his actions as wrong.

Democrats stick to their red lines — and put up a fight

Democrats have maintained that they will not pass the Trump-endorsed budget bill that will raise healthcare costs for Americans.

Under Trump-endorsed budget, health insurance premiums will rise by two or even four times for around 24 million Americans as it will end subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). It will also remove another 11.8 million Americans from Medicaid coverage over the next decade.

Impact Shorts

More Shorts

5 reasons not to worry about oil prices, for now

Japan: In maiden policy speech, Takaichi promises 2% of GDP for defence spending

Democrats have maintained that the public will understand that they are fighting for their healthcare. They have also stressed that it is the duty of Republicans to pass a budget with consensus as they control both the White House and Congress. Surveys suggest that such an approach is at least partially working.

The AP-NORC survey has found that 60 per cent of Americans blame Trump and Republicans for the shutdown.

But the survey also suggested that Democrats’ messaging has had limited reach so far.

While 40 per cent of Americans supported continuing ACA subsidies, 42 per cent of Americans said they had not heard enough about the healthcare aspect of the budget impasse to form an opinion, according to the survey.

But Democrats are sticking to their guns as they see the shutdown as their best chance to put up a fight and tell Americans they stand for their fundamental needs of healthcare and food security. They believed that the shutdown will backfire on Republicans.

Republicans have the most to lose because they hold all the levels of power, according to strategist Mike Madrid, co-founder of the Lincoln Project, a group that opposes Trump’s policies.

“With the stand on the shutdown, people are finally seeing some fight from party [Democratic Party] leadership,” Madrid told Newsweek.

“People are literally going to be going hungry. Eventually, they [Republicans] will face the wrath of voters,” said Madrid.

While no one could ‘win’ in a shutdown, the Republicans are expected to come off worse, according to Doug Gordon, another Democratic strategist.

“No one ever ‘wins’ a shutdown, but it is certainly a bad look for Republicans that Speaker Johnson has the House of Representatives on a taxpayer-funded month-long vacation while Americans are about to get hit with the largest healthcare cost increase in more than a decade. With Republicans controlling every lever of the government, they will get the blame for that,” Gordon told Newsweek.

But, unlike previous shutdowns, the damage to the economy is likely to be permanent this time. And that could backfire on Democrats as well as government employees, who are expected to be hit the hardest, are a traditional Democratic constituency.

In violation of the longstanding policy and a 2019 law, Trump has said that he may not pay salaries to government workers for the duration of the shutdown. Until now, upon the opening of the government, government employees would get all of their pay for the period of the shutdown as backpay.

Economists have estimated that the shutdown will cut GDP growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points for each week it drags on, according to The New York Times.

That would mean a weekly loss of between $7.6 billion and $15.2 billion, The Times reported.