 "(File) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. AP")
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is undoubtedly steering Turkey through a transformative period in its international relations. His recent diplomatic engagements signal a broader effort to reset and expand Turkey’s influence across multiple regions, from the Arab world to Europe. One of the clearest indications of this shift is Turkey’s re-engagement with the Arab League after a 13-year hiatus, with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan representing Ankara at a ministerial meeting in Cairo. This is a crucial development, particularly given Turkey’s past tensions with several Arab nations including Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Arab League Meeting: A strategic return
Turkey’s return to talking terms with the Arab League marks a key moment in its regional diplomacy. Since the Syrian civil war and the 2013 ousting of Egypt’s Mohamed Mursi, Erdogan’s ties with key Arab League members had frayed. However, Ankara has been working hard to restore these relationships, driven by economic interests and geopolitical necessity. Turkey’s support for calls to investigate Israeli actions in Gaza, alongside its participation in an Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation contact group, demonstrates its strategic interest toward regional cooperation.
For the first time in over a decade, Turkey participated in a ministerial meeting of the Arab League, with Foreign Minister Fidan attending the session in Cairo on Tuesday. This marks a significant diplomatic move for Ankara, which has been at odds with the League in recent years.
Turkey has been vocal in its condemnation of Israel’s actions against Hamas in Gaza, even supporting calls for genocide charges at the World Court.
Erdogan’s Islamic alliance rhetoric against Israeli “expansionism” further highlights his desire to strengthen ties with Arab nations, while Turkey also negotiates a free trade deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council. The Arab League meeting thus reflects Turkey’s effort to enhance institutional ties and establish itself as a vital player in Middle Eastern politics.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsMending fences with Egypt
Turkey’s most striking diplomatic reset came with Egypt, where years of bitter tension following President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s ousting of his predecessor Mohamed Mursi have been steadily thawing. The September 2024 visit of Egypt’s President al-Sisi to Ankara, marking the first such visit in 12 years, solidified this detente. Erdogan’s government has emphasised a “win-win” approach in their dealings, signing 18 cooperation agreements covering defence, energy and finance. This renewed partnership holds economic promise with both countries targeting an ambitious boost in bilateral trade.
Moreover, Turkey’s support of Egypt’s mediation in the Israel-Palestine conflict underscores the broader regional realignment. Both Erdogan and al-Sisi called for a ceasefire in Gaza reflecting shared geopolitical interests. Their talks on Libya, where both nations have vested interests, also signal a coordinated effort to stabilise the region.
Relations began to improve in 2020 as Turkey launched efforts to mend ties with regional powers, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. By 2022, both countries had reinstated ambassadors, and Turkey committed to supplying Egypt with military drones. Erdogan made a significant visit to Cairo earlier this year, his first since 2012.
During this latest meeting, Erdogan and al-Sisi held talks at the presidential palace following a joint arrival at Ankara airport. Erdogan and al-Sisi also shared goals of boosting annual trade from $5 billion to $15 billion over the next five years. In a joint press conference, they reaffirmed their alignment on the Palestinian issue, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and ending the violence in the West Bank. Turkey, a vocal critic of Israel’s actions in Gaza, has been sending aid through Egypt and praised Cairo’s role in negotiating peace efforts.
According to AFP, the two leaders also discussed the ongoing conflict in Libya agreeing on the need for simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections and the removal of foreign mercenaries and armed militias to end the division.
Rethinking EU relations
While Erdogan’s outreach to Arab states is striking, his efforts to reset relations with the European Union are equally significant. After a five-year hiatus, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Fidan attended a meeting in Brussels on 29 August to restart dialogue. This move comes despite Turkey’s longstanding challenges with the EU, particularly over human rights, the Cyprus issue and tensions with Greece. The EU’s reliance on Turkey for migration management, however, offers a platform for Erdogan to regain leverage.
Despite the EU’s reticence to reinvigourate Turkey’s candidacy, Ankara remains a crucial partner for European stability. Erdogan’s pragmatic approach, seeking cooperation where mutual interests align, may yet revive Turkey’s frozen EU accession bid, even if hurdles remain.
In 2019, rising friction between Greece, an EU member, and Turkey led Brussels to consider imposing sanctions on Ankara and halting specific avenues of communication. Ties have improved since 2021 with high-level talks restarting.
Ankara saw the EU’s invitation to Foreign Minister Fidan as an effort to seek dialogue, a foreign ministry source told Reuters. Deeper ties “with the understanding that Turkey is a candidate country” would benefit both sides, the source added.
Turkey’s balancing act: BRICS and NATO
Under the leadership of President Erdogan, Turkey has of late increasingly sought to balance its relationships between NATO and non-Western alliances, such as BRICS. Erdogan’s interest in joining BRICS, an organisation aimed at countering Western economic dominance demonstrates his broader strategy of diversifying Turkey’s economic ties while maintaining its critical security relationship with NATO. This dual alignment presents a potential conflict of interest as BRICS includes Russia, a country NATO largely positions itself against, particularly amid ongoing tensions over Ukraine.
Erdogan’s decision to purchase Russian S-400 air defence systems over US-made Patriot missiles stirred significant tension within NATO, leading to Turkey’s removal from the F-35 fighter jet programme and the imposition of US sanctions. Despite this, Erdogan has maintained Turkey’s outward commitment to NATO, highlighting its strategic importance to the alliance. Turkey’s geographic location, military strength and contributions to NATO’s missions make it a crucial ally that the alliance is unlikely to push away, despite internal challenges.
Erdogan’s pragmatic foreign policy mirrors Turkey’s historical strategy during World War II, when the country navigated relationships with both the Allied and Axis powers without fully committing to either. Now, Erdogan is positioning Turkey to benefit economically from both Western and non-Western blocs, especially as the country’s bid to join the EU has been stymied. By leveraging BRICS membership possibilities, Erdogan can establish stronger economic ties with countries like Russia and China while relying on NATO for security guarantees.
However, Turkey’s potential application to join BRICS adds another layer of discomfort for India, especially considering President Erdogan’s vocal stance on Kashmir. Erdogan has frequently criticised India’s actions in Kashmir, often aligning with Pakistan on the issue, which has strained Indo-Turkish relations. If Turkey were to join BRICS, this could complicate India’s position within the bloc. Erdogan’s anti-India rhetoric could potentially influence BRICS discussions placing India in an awkward diplomatic situation especially given the group’s focus on countering Western influence and fostering non-aligned partnerships.
Nevertheless, Erdogan’s careful navigation of these alliances reflects his broader geopolitical vision for Turkey: maintaining economic flexibility, managing regional tensions and asserting Turkey’s independence on the global stage. While some NATO members have expressed discomfort with Turkey’s actions, Erdogan continues to assert Turkey’s value as an indispensable partner for both NATO and potential new alliances like BRICS.
A potential thaw with Syria?
Another notable aspect of Erdogan’s diplomatic mission is his evolving stance toward Syria. After years of supporting opposition forces seeking to overthrow Bashar al-Assad, Erdogan signalled in July this year that he may extend an invitation to the Syrian president. Such a move would mark a profound shift in Turkish foreign policy, reflecting Erdogan’s current priority to secure Turkey’s borders and manage the return of Syrian refugees.
Speaking to reporters on his return from Berlin, where he attended the Euro 2024 event, Erdogan mentioned the possibility of inviting Assad to Turkey, according to reports from Anadolu and other outlets, the AFP reported. Erdogan’s remarks follow a week of unrest in Turkey, where anti-Syrian sentiments flared up leading to attacks on Syrian-owned businesses and properties in central Anatolia.
With over 3.2 million Syrian refugees in Turkey and rising domestic xenophobia, Ankara’s recalibration of its Syria policy is driven by internal pressures. Erdogan’s pragmatic approach to potentially engaging Assad demonstrates his willingness to explore new avenues for stabilising Turkey’s regional position.
Strategic pragmatism in action
Erdogan’s recent moves reflect a broader strategy of resetting Turkey’s global ties, driven by pragmatic economic, geopolitical and domestic considerations. Whether through re-engaging the Arab League, strengthening ties with Egypt, exploring economic links with BRICS or seeking a diplomatic reset with the EU and Syria, Erdogan is tactfully positioning Turkey to become a key player in an increasingly multipolar world. By seeking cooperation where opportunities align, President Erdogan is recalibrating Turkey’s regional role while balancing its strategic interests on the global stage.