Another Cold War? India can't ignore Crimea crisis in Ukraine

The snowballing Ukrainian crisis threatens to be a game-changing global event that no major power in the world, including India, can afford to ignore. The fast-paced unfolding events in Ukraine have the potential to revive yet another Cold War era between the familiar adversaries – the United States and Russia. For the first time since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979, Washington and Moscow are locked in a face-off with serious military implications. The US-Russia confrontation over Georgia in 2008 was nothing in comparison. That’s because the stakes were not so high for the two sides. A long series of US-Russian spats over several issues culminating in the Edward Snowden incident too was just another irritant in their bilateral relations. But what is happening in Ukraine today leaves none in doubt that it is may well trigger a high-stake military conflict, albeit indirectly, involving the Americans and the Russians and reviving the Cold War. What remains to be seen though is who will be siding with Russia on the issue of Ukraine. Washington has no dearth of supporters on the latest global flashpoint. US President Barack Obama had a telephonic conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday which went on for 90 minutes and was the second such “telecon” between the two leaders in past one week over Ukraine. The Americans have already started constricting the diplomatic space for the Russians over the Ukrainian issue by threatening to boycott not just the G8 summit in the Russian Black Sea resort city of Sochi in June this year but also the preparatory meetings in the run up to the summit.  The Americans already have the support of France and Britain on boycotting the Sochi G8 summit and now Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper too has lent his country’s support to the Americans over the issue. Also, the Russians should not miss out the humanitarian irony of the fact that while their multi-billion dollar diplomacy in hosting the just-concluded Sochi Winter Olympics was aimed at making friends and influencing people globally they may have ended up with doing just the opposite by sending troops and occupying Crimea, a peninsula of Ukraine on the northern coast of the Black Sea. What makes the current Ukrainian crisis a high-stake strategic gamble for the two sides – Washington and Russia – is the fact that both sides have ample reasons for not blinking. For Putin, it is his next diplomatic standoff with the US after his successful and much appreciated intervention over Syria which averted a Libya-type UN-mandated, West-choreographed war against Syria, with the covert objective of regime change. Putin’s personal graph soared after his Syria intervention. Putin perhaps was not so emphatic with the US over other global flashpoints, including the Georgia issue in 2008. But this time the Russians are feeling the heat and are apprehensive of the Western world’s designs in their very backyard: Ukraine. For Putin, Ukraine is a no-go area as far as the West and NATO are concerned. If Ukraine is allowed to drift away from the centuries-old Russian influence, it would be curtains for Moscow. This clearly is the strategic consideration of Putin which is propelling his Ukraine policy. For the US-led West, Ukraine is not just another far-off country in the Caucasus. It is right there in Europe where NATO is hyperactive and is keen to have Ukraine in its fold. The Russian act of sending its troops into Crimea and seizing control of this only ethnic Russian-dominant region of Ukraine is an alarm bell that the West can ignore at its own peril. With its Crimea act and the authorization that Putin has got from the Russian parliament to use military force to protect Russian interests in Ukraine, Russia has made its intentions clear. It is against this backdrop that the battle lines are clearly drawn between the US-led West and Russia. For Europe, the ongoing developments in Ukraine constitute the biggest threat since the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. [caption id=“attachment_1412277” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] A Pro-Russian demonstrator waves Russian and Crimea flags from an old Soviet Army tank during a protest in front of a local government building in Simferopol, Crimea, Ukraine. AP[/caption] The million dollar question is how far the two sides – the Russians and the Americans – are willing to push the envelope over the Ukraine crisis.  It is going to be a long-drawn affair. Each side will be mustering diplomatic support from other countries. It will be interesting to see how Russia plays its international diplomacy as Moscow is unlikely to match the Americans’ diplomatic blitzkrieg on this issue. China’s stance on this issue is indicative of how tough it is going to be for the Russians to find international support on the Ukraine crisis. China has called for talks to find a political solution to the crisis while voicing its support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. “We condemn the recent extreme violent behaviour in Ukraine, and continue to urge all sides in Ukraine to peacefully resolve their disputes within a legal framework, and conscientiously protect the legal rights all the peoples of Ukraine,” the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement on Sunday. This effectively means that China is not supportive of Russia over the Ukraine issue. (The writer is a Firstpost columnist and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.)