Al Qaeda's India wing to 'save' Muslims: Its real target is the Islamic State

Al Qaeda chief Zayman al Zawahiri’s new tape about the formation of an Indian wing may seem like a declaration of intent against the Indian state given its timing, coming soon after the formation of the Narendra Modi government. However, there are already doubts that the terror group’s chief may not be looking as much to wage war against the Indian state as prove that they are more relevant than its more brutal offshoot. In the video tape released by the terror group last night, Zawahiri is heard describing the formation of “Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent” as glad tidings for Muslims “in Burma, Bangladesh, Assam, Gujarat, Ahmedabad, and Kashmir”. The first tape released by the Al Qaeda chief since August 2013 shows the former doctor saying that they will not forget their brothers in the region and intend to liberate them from injustice and oppression. He also said the new body would break the borders formed by British colonialism, and called for the Muslim community on the subcontinent to unite under one God. “The new wing will be called the Jamaat Qaidat al-jihad fi’shibhi al-qarrat al-Hindiya, or Organisation of The Base of Jihad in the Indian Sub-Continentw which released online manifestos written by al-Zawahiri, spokesperson Usama Mahmoud, and organisational chief Asim Umar,”  reports the Indian Express. [caption id=“attachment_1696265” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Zawahiri’s new video promises action against the Indian state. Reuters[/caption] While there is no specific threat outlined in the 55-minute video by the Al Qaeda chief, the Indian Express’s Praveen Swami notes a “gathering storm of violent Islamism in Pakistan would lash India” and points to a surge in Indian jihadists training abroad, the four men who allegedly left to train with the Islamic State and homegrown terror group Indian Mujahideen operatives fighting in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. He also cites the discontent with the Pakistani state’s inability to help smaller Indian terror groups carry out major attacks as one reason why the new Al Qaeda wing may be more attractive to potential new recruits fighting against India and Pakistan. However, while the focus of the video may have been the formation of the new wing, Zawahiri also took the time out to renew the loyalty to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar, and even took potshots at the Islamic State and its new caliph Abu Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Zawahri called for unity among militants and criticised “discord” - echoing a common al Qaeda complaint against Islamic State’s record of clashing with rival Islamist groups in Syria. The statement also warned al Qaeda’s new wing against oppressing local populations - another complaint levelled against Islamic State by critics in Iraq and Syria. “Discord is a curse and torment, and disgrace for the believers and glory for the disbelievers,” he said. “If you say that by your jihad you do not want but the pleasure of Allah, then you must not race for governance and leadership at the first opportunity.” Given the timing of the tape – released on the same day that the Islamic State released a video of the beheading of abducted US journalist Steven Sotloff – and Zawahiri’s jibes at IS, there are already questions about  its significance and intent. India is no stranger to threats from the Al Qaeda leaders who have in the past made similar calls  to fight against the Indian state, but often to little avail. A video in 2013 from the now Indian unit head Maulana Asim Umar, in fact, squarely asked why Indian Muslims weren’t taking to the battle field like from other countries. Writing in the Washington Post , Ishaan Tharoor is sceptical that anything has changed:

But it’s hard to see how al-Qaeda can capitalize in South Asia if it hasn’t already. For all the tensions and enmities that exist in this diverse, overcrowded region, it’s a part of the world steeped in traditions of pluralism and tolerance. Al-Qaeda’s puritanical zeal, incubated in places such as Saudi Arabia, is wholly alien to the Indian subcontinent. And South Asian governments, particularly in India and Bangladesh, have stepped up cooperation on issues of counterterrorism.

Tharoor instead suggests that the video be read as a response to the Islamic State’s aggressive recruitment efforts on the subcontinent, including Pakistan, Afghanistan – where some Taliban leaders have switched loyalties to Al Baghdadi – and India: “It also has been making inroads in South Asia. There are reports of Indian Muslims journeying to Syria to join the Islamic State. Recruitment videos in Urdu, Tamil and a number of other languages native to South Asia have proliferated.” Indian security establishment may not have the luxury of taking Zawahiri’s threats lightly given that even a weakened Al Qaeda exerts a great deal of influence in the world of terror. As this  New Indian Express columnist noted, it’s decentralised structure allows it to set up quickly in politically unstable nations, two of which lie on India’s western border. But whether the latest video indicates a real, on the ground Al Qaeda expansion remains to be seen. For now, it seems that the Al Qaeda chief is about as worried about staying relevant in the competitive world of terrorism as setting up base in India. But it is always good to remember that those two goals are highly compatible. with inputs from Reuters