 "Representational image. Reuters File")
Aiming to run again for the US presidential election, Donald Trump said in February this year that he would “encourage” Russia to do whatever it wanted against Nato nations that didn’t honour their defence expenditure commitments. His comments still reverberate among the Nato member nations as their leaders gather on Tuesday in Washington to celebrate 75 years of the military alliance in a three-day event.
Trump as the US president was extremely critical of Nato members alleging they were feeding off the US finances in the military alliance, set up in 1949. During the first presidential debate in June, when US President Joe Biden asked Trump if he would withdraw from Nato, he just shrugged his head.
As European leaders prepare for the upcoming NATO summit in Washington, there is an undercurrent of anxiety about the future of the alliance. With doubts about President Biden’s re-election chances growing, the spectre of Trump returning to power casts a shadow over the summit. Trump, who has been a prominent critic of Nato, raises fears about the stability and security of the alliance.
The summit’s context and focus
Nato, which comprises 32 European and North American allies committed to mutual defence, is celebrating its 75th anniversary in Washington, hosted by President Biden, who has strengthened Nato’s unity in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine.
However, the real focus of the summit will be on preparing for potential fractures within the alliance, driven by the rise of far-right political forces both in the US and Europe. When Biden confronted Trump about his stance on Nato at the recent presidential debate, questioning whether he would remain committed to the alliance. Trump’s ambivalent response has heightened these concerns.
European governments have been holding extensive discussions on how to ensure that Nato’s support for Ukraine and the security of its member countries will persist, even if Trump were to win the presidency and reduce US contributions.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe chatter about ‘Trump-proofing’ Nato
The idea of “Trump-proofing” Nato has gained traction among some European and American officials. This concept involves creating safeguards to maintain the alliance’s strength and support for Ukraine, regardless of the political climate in the US or Europe. The current summit, which was once anticipated as a celebration of Nato’s resilience, now seems overshadowed by these concerns.
The mood at the summit is also influenced by recent Russian advancements on the battlefield, partly attributed to delays in US arms and funding to Ukraine by Trump-allied congressional Republicans. The rise of far-right governments in Europe, which are generally unfriendly to Nato, adds to the worries about the future of the alliance’s cohesion and effectiveness.
Is there anyone buying Trump’s Nato stand?
Trump’s controversial comments, suggesting he would “encourage” Russia to attack Nato members not meeting their financial obligations, have drawn sharp rebukes. The Biden administration condemned these remarks as dangerous and destabilising. Outgoing Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg emphasised that the trans-Atlantic alliance remains committed to defending all allies, and any suggestion to the contrary undermines collective security.
Political responses in the US have been mixed. While some, like former Governor Chris Christie, criticise Trump’s comments as inappropriate, others, such as Senator Marco Rubio, downplay them as typical Trump rhetoric. This division reflects broader concerns about the stability and reliability of US support for Nato under different leadership scenarios.
The money, and the tussle, part of Nato dynamics
Trump’s focus on Nato members’ defence spending misrepresents the alliance’s financial structure. Nato does not collect dues; instead, it sets a target for members to spend two per cent of their GDP on national defence.
This benchmark, committed through an agreement in the mid-2000s, aims to ensure that members are adequately prepared to contribute to collective defence efforts. However, a majority of Nato members have not been spending the committed percentage of their GDPs to defence spending, prompting sharp criticism from Trump.
Only 11 of the 32 Nato members spent two per cent or more of their GDPs on defence. The three countries with the highest percentages were Poland (3.90%), the U.S. (3.49%) and Greece (3.01%).
The other countries meeting the two per cent threshold were Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and the UK. A look at the map of Europe tells that all European countries, except the UK, meeting the threshold expenditure share a geographical border with an unpredictable Russia.
Of late, many Nato countries, however, have increased their defence budgets in response to the security threats posed by Russia — especially after President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian forces to invade Ukraine, which was yearning for a Nato membership.
What it means for Nato legacy and its future challenges
Nato was established in April 1949 to counter Soviet expansion and ensure collective defence among its members. Over the decades, the alliance has grown and adapted to new security challenges, most recently exemplified by the inclusion of Finland and Sweden. As Nato faces new geopolitical tensions, the principles of unity and collective defence remain crucial.
As the Nato summit gets underway in the US, the military alliance stands at a crossroads. The potential return of Trump and the rise of far-right political forces present significant challenges. Nato gets a new boss this October in Mark Rutte, who recently stepped aside as the Netherlands prime minister after staying at the helm of affairs of the country for 14 years.
Rutte’s tenure as Nato secretary-general will test the enduring commitment of the member nations to mutual defence and solidarity which have its essential core as the military alliance navigates these uncertain times and its leaders strive to maintain its role as a cornerstone of global security.