6 Nov polls: Why history is on Romney's side

The Republicans might as well be telling themselves that “Aal izz well’’. At a Republican election rally in Lima in Ohio state, one of the county candidates attempted to hit President Barack Obama’s chances of a re-election for a sixer with a historical fact.

“Did you know that so far, six Presidential elections have been held on November 6?’’ he asked. Some nodded, most looked blank. The American elections, after they were standardised in 1845, are held on the Tuesday after the first Monday of November every four years.

He explained:  “The first time an election was held on 6 November was in 1860, when Abraham Lincoln won. The last was in 1984, when Ronald Reagan won. All six candidates were Republicans. So this time friends, we got to make it a seventh time. History is on our side.’’ The crowd cheered.

But just in case, history has a memory lapse, there are Republican T-shirts to remind it. They say ‘OMG’. That expands to ‘Obama Must Go’!

As the high-profile American presidential election campaign gets into the last few hours before voting starts on Tuesday morning, both Democrat and Republican supporters agree only on one point. That the race for the popular vote will be incredibly close. Most also admit that at this moment, President Barack Obama has his nose ahead just a bit as far as the chances of winning battleground states are concerned but whoever wins, is not going to run away with the election.

By Wednesday, we would know if either Obama or Mitt Romney does an Usain Bolt to Washington DC.

There is also no consensus on what the October surprise in the form of Hurricane Sandy could do to the chances of the two candidates. October surprise have been a googly in some Presidential elections, playing a part in introducing a doosra element at the very last minute. Like the Osama bin Laden videotape that came out a week before polling in 2004, which immediately provoked security concerns among Americans and helped George Bush. Or the collapse of the Lehmann brothers in 2008 (in September, not October), that helped Obama’s promise of hope and change gain strength.

Initially, the impression was that the Obama administration had handled Sandy well, minimising the damage. The President drew praise from Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a Republican, causing most to believe that Sandy had ruined Romney’s chances.

But not any more. The long queues outside gas stations in New Jersey and the delay in restoring power in many parts in this patch, has shown the administration in a poor light. And there is apprehension in the Democrat camp that they are failing to read the simmering discontent along the east coast.

Republicans too are worried that Sandy upset the fierce anti-Obama mood that Romney was building up in the days and weeks preceding the hurricane and the natural disaster forced him to pause that for some days, thereby losing momentum.

Just like in India, astrologers too have got into the mix, making predictions about the winner. A survey on politicalastrologyblog.com ,  which claims to be a non-partisan astrology blog dedicated to politics, has 31 astrologers predicting an Obama win compared to 14 other astrologers who foresee a Romney entry into White House. Interestingly, three of their colleagues said even the planets cannot predict a winner, calling the election “too close to call’’.

On the lighter side, there is of course, the Presidential Cookie Bake-off, organised by Family Circle magazine. Some 9,000 readers cast their votes in the contest between Michelle Obama’s white-and-dark chocolate chip cookies and Ann Romney’s M&M cookies. The First Lady won by just 287 votes, the smallest margin ever. Perhaps another indication of the close race.

Interestingly, this culinary contest has been a feature of American Presidential elections for the last two decades where the magazine asks the candidates’ spouses to submit family cookie recipes for readers to compare. Four of the previous five times, the winner’s husband went on to win the Presidential election as well. The Obama camp wouldn’t give it much importance as the only time it did not work was in 2008 when Michelle’s lemon shortbread cookies lost to Cindy McCain’s oatmeal butterscotch recipe but Obama went on to sweep the polls. That’s how the cookie crumbled for John McCain.

TS Sudhir is travelling in the US as part of an exclusive group of 25 journalists from 25 countries, to report on the Presidential Elections. The tour is organised by the Foreign Press Center, US Department of State.