 "An Iranian flag hangs as smoke rises after what the Iranian media said was an Israeli strike on a building close to the Iranian embassy in Damascus on Monday. Source: Reuters")
Iran has vowed revenge for the killing of a top general and senior military and intelligence officers in an Israeli airstrike in the Syrian capital Damascus, but its promise to carry out a counteroffensive might be harder than it looks.
“The evil Zionist regime will be punished at the hands of our brave men. We will make them regret this crime and the other ones,” said Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, on Tuesday.
An Israeli airstrike killed Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the top commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), in Damascus along with six other top IRGC officers, said IRGC in a statement on Tuesday. The Iranian government further said that the strike was conducted on a building which was part of the Israeli embassy complex.
Iran has risky options on the table
The Iranian leadership faces the dilemma of striking a balance between the vow to avenge the most high-profile targeting killing of an Iranian official in recent years and the need to avoid an outright war with Israel and its Western partners like the United States.
For years, Israel and Iran have been engaged in a ‘shadow war’ where the two have hit at each-other’s interests abroad but have stayed out of a direct war. While Iran has financed and armed regional groups like Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel and has allegedly carried out attacks on Israeli missions abroad, Israel has targeted Iranian scientists and officials and has also struck the Iranian nuclear programme.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsA direct attack on Israel is unlikely as it would invite a reciprocal attack on Iran and would likely drag the two countries in war along the United States on the side of Israel.
Here are the options on the table for Iran to respond to the Israeli killing of General Zahedi, who is the senior-most Iranian officer to be killed since the US assassination of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, who was the then-chief of the Quds Force, the military and intelligence wing of IRGC looks after its covert foreign operations.
1. Attack on US interests
Iran has held the United States responsible for the Israeli strike in the Syrian capital Damascus. As a response, it is expected that Iran may target US interests in the region.
These targets may be US troops and bases in the region. Since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas War on October 7, 2023, Iranian proxies have repeatedly hit the US troops and bases in the region.
This may not be the best option as it would leave Israel unpunished and carry the risk of getting into a direct escalatory spiral with the United States that may lead to an Iran-US War, note Helen Regan, Hamdi Alkhshali, and Tamara Qiblawi in an article for CNN.
Separately, US officials were quoted as saying by Reuters that they have not picked up intelligence so far that Iranian proxies were looking to attack US personnel in the region following the strike in Damascus.
2. Iran’s proxies pitched against Israel
Iran has a network of proxies in the region, dubbed the Axis of Resistance, opposed to Israel. The groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) comprise this network. Iran may activate this network to attack Israel.
Such groups have, however, already been engaged with Israel anyway since October 7. While Hamas is already fighting the war in Gaza, Lebanon-based Hezbollah too has been battling Israel and the country has been preparing for a potential full-fledged war with the group for months. It has vacated 40 communities along the Lebanese border amid border skirmishes and cross-border strikes.
Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, told CNN that Iran is likely to use its proxies in the region along with diplomatic efforts to isolate Israel, but it is not likely to escalate significantly.
3. Attacks on Israeli interests abroad
Just like Israel struck Iranian interests in Syria, Iran may also attack Israeli interests abroad. These interests may include Israeli diplomatic missions or places associated with the Jewish people. There is a long history of such attacks.
In 1992, a bombing at the Israeli embassy in Argentina killed 29, which Israel blamed on Hezbollah. Then, in 1992, Israeli diplomats were targeted in India, Georgia, and Thailand, which Israel blamed on Iran.
4. Ramping up nuclear programme
Iran may opt for ramping up its nuclear programme and move closer towards the development of a nuclear weapon, but this carries the risk of attracting Israeli or US strikes on its nuclear facilities.
In 1981, Israel bombed a nuclear reactor in Iraq. Then, over the years, Israel and the United States have mounted cyberattacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. The most notable was the 2010 ‘Stuxnet’ attack.
Iran is understood to be quite close to the development of a nuclear bomb. Last year, General Mark Milley, the then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Iran could develop a nuclear weapon within months upon taking the final decision to do so.
5. No military action against Israel
Experts have also said that Iran may not act militarily against Israel at all and may keep working towards isolating Israel internationally, which is increasingly facing criticism over the human toll of the war in Gaza.
Sanam Vakil of Chatham House told CNN that Iran is unlikely to directly respond militarily but it is likely to “build on this momentum of international condemnation for the war in Gaza", stoke up international fears of a broader and regional war, and isolate Israel further.