5 reasons Ukraine may not agree to give up Donbas for peace with Russia despite Trump-Putin pressure

As efforts continue for direct talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Donbas region of Ukraine has come into the spotlight. Russia has demanded that Ukraine must surrender Donbas region as part of any deal that would end the war. But this demand might be a condition Zelenskyy is unlikely to agree to in any negotiated peace settlement.

The Donbas region in eastern Ukraine comprises the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. The war has been going on in the region since 2014 when Russia invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region following a referendum that the West rejected, and also invaded Donbas. The region has had a problem of separatism led by armed groups, which have found Russia’s backing, and also back Moscow’s claim on the region in return. These groups were leading an insurgency in the region until 2022 when Russia launched the full-scale invasion of the country.

While Zelenskyy previously indicated that he was open to freezing battlelines in Donbas, Putin has called for the surrender of the entire region. This means that Russia is staking claim on areas under its control and also those still held by the Ukrainian forces. For Zelenskyy, the Donbas condition is a non-starter for peace talks.

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Moreover, Donbas is Ukraine’s industrial, strategic, and logistical hub, and surrendering the region would allow Russia to make further inroads into the country.

Here are five reasons why Zelenskyy would find it very hard to give up Donbas region.

1. Public opinion is staunchly against Donbas’ surrender

As much as 75 per cent of Ukrainians are against formally surrendering territory to Russia, according to polling from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

Moreover, while Ukrainians, and Zelenskyy, are okay with the de facto surrender of the territory under Russian control, which means freezing of battlelines, they are not okay with the de jure surrender, which means formally ceding the territory to Russia and formally recognising that land as that of Russia.

Moreover, the Ukrainian constitution disallows any formal surrender of the country’s land.

For these reasons, the formal surrender of not just the entire Donbas but even parts of the country under Russian control is considered to be off the table.

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2. Donbas’ strategic importance

As Donbas has witnessed fighting since 2014, the region is highly fortified and the core of Ukrainian defensive battlelines run through the region. The region is also a logistical and industrial hub.

Therefore, the surrender of Donbas would mean that Ukraine would give up fortifications and defensive positions that it has not just held but strengthened over the past 11 years.

Moreover, it would mean surrendering military strongholds and territories that Russia has tried to capture for 11 years but has not been able to. For Ukraine, this would not just be a strategic loss but a blow to the morale of its forces.

In short, the surrender of Donbas could open the gateway for Russia to march further into the country. Ukraine would not want that given Russia’s concern, and its policy to respond to such ‘security concerns’.

3. Land for peace does not work for Ukraine

In any case, Ukraine has rejected land-for-peace plans. It has even raised the question of Crimea, whose annexation by Russia didn’t meet with much diplomatic protests from the international community.

The Crimea experience is still fresh in Ukrainian memory. It lost the region to Russia in 2014 without any resistance In 2014. Eight years later, Russian forces came back to mainland Ukraine, insurgency in Donbas only helped Russia further its Ukraine policy.

If Ukraine surrenders Donbas, Kyiv-backers fear, Russia is likely to rebuild its arsenal, replenish its ranks, and return with another invasion in a few years. They say that the surrender of Donbas could serve as an encouragement for further incursions and invasions.

4. A moral defeat

The surrender of Donbas would also amount to a moral defeat of Ukraine.

One of the Putin’s stated reasons for the full-scale invasion in 2022 was an allegation of “genocide” of Russian-speakers and ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine. He said that he was forced to launch the “special military operation” to ensure the safety of these people in Donbas.

Russia had invaded Georgia on similar grounds in 2008.

If Ukraine surrenders Donbas, it may be diplomatically interpreted as a justification of Putin’s basis for the invasion and incur a moral defeat.

5. A national shame

For Zelenskyy and many Ukrainians, the loss of Donbas would be a personal shame.

In their meeting at the White House, Zelenskyy told Trump that his grandfather fought the Nazis in Donbas in World War 2, according to The New York Times.

Indeed, Zelenskyy’s grandfather, Semyon Zelenskyy, fought on the Eastern Front in the World War 2. He went on to become a colonel in the Soviet military. In fact, three of Semyon’s brothers also fought the Nazis. Zelenskyy’s great-grandparents were killed when the Nazis burned their village during the Holocaust, the systematic killing of Jews (Zelenskyy is a Jew) and other ethnic groups like the Roma people by the Nazis.

After their meeting at the White House, Zelenskyy told the media that “there were many such families” that fought to free the Donbas.

“Many fell and many were wounded. And I explained that this is a particularly painful moment in our history and a particularly painful part of life in Ukraine. It is not as simple as it may appear to some,” said Zelenskyy.