 "A fractured world: How coups, conflicts and fragile truces disrupted the global order in 2025")
2025 ended with global stability fractured by mutinies, civil unrest and tentative pauses in conflict rather than a return to order. Across the Sahel, Haiti and the Taiwan Strait, armed actors tested the limits of fragile governments as world powers swapped multilateralism for harder-edged deterrence and security pacts.
While local ceasefires offered brief moments of hope, the overarching narrative remained one of deepening insecurity and a steady erosion of the international status quo.
Sahel & Africa: Coups harden into regimes
In Africa, 2025 saw military takeovers evolve from temporary disruptions into established governance. The “Alliance of Sahel States” (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) solidified their exit from ECOWAS, turning toward security partnerships with Russia.
Madagascar: On October 12, 2025, elite units of the CAPSAT overthrew President Andry Rajoelina following weeks of youth-led protests over energy crises. Colonel Michael Randrianirina was sworn in as President, dissolving the Senate and High Constitutional Court.
Benin: In December 2025, a coup attempt led by Lieutenant Colonel Pascal Tigri was thwarted after a 45-minute battle at the presidential residence in Cotonou. President Patrice Talon remained in power, but the incident highlighted deep instability following controversial constitutional amendments.
Sudan: Remains the world’s most devastating conflict zone, with 12 million people displaced as the war between the army and the RSF reached a “violent fracture” with no clear end in sight.
Haiti: Gang rule vs. the transition
Haiti spent 2025 on the edge of total collapse. Armed gangs now control over 90% of Port-au-Prince, with nearly 1.4 million people internally displaced.
Quick Reads
View AllGang Suppression Force (GSF): In September 2025, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2793, replacing the struggling Kenya-led mission with a more robust “Gang Suppression Force.” This new force is five times the size of its predecessor, with a 12-month offensive mandate.
Humanitarian Crisis: Over 4,300 people were killed in the first nine months of the year alone, and more than half the population faces acute food insecurity.
Nepal: The “Gen Z” uprising
One of the most startling political shocks of 2025 came from Nepal, where a leaderless “Gen Z” uprising toppled the government after a sweeping social media ban backfired. The crisis escalated rapidly after authorities suspended 26 major platforms on 4 September in what many saw as an attempt to muzzle dissent over corruption and nepotism, sparking youth‑led protests that culminated in the storming and torching of the Federal Parliament Building and other key institutions in Kathmandu on 9 September.
The Fall: Following the “Storming of the Parliament” on September 9, where the Federal Parliament Building was torched, Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli was forced to resign. Oli subsequently fled to Dubai for medical treatment.
The Transition: In a historic first, Sushila Karki (former Chief Justice) was appointed as the country’s first female head of government to lead an interim administration.f
The Cost: The uprising claimed at least 76 lives, signalling a new era where digital-native generations are no longer willing to wait for the ballot box to demand accountability.
Taiwan Strait: Asymmetric standoff
In East Asia, the Taiwan Strait remained one of the world’s most closely watched flashpoints amid intensifying US–China rivalry. Throughout 2025, Beijing expanded military activity around the island, including large‑scale air and naval drills and the use of new “mothership” ‑style drone carriers to simulate blockades and precision strikes, moves that Taipei and Tokyo warned could normalize a permanent state of “gray‑zone” pressure.
In December, the United States approved an arms package for Taiwan worth about $11.1 billion — its largest single weapons deal with the island, providing rocket launchers, self‑propelled artillery, anti‑tank systems and other hardware to bolster deterrence.
Taiwanese officials framed the deal as central to their shift toward an “asymmetric defence” posture that relies on large numbers of relatively low‑cost missiles, drones and unmanned surface vessels to raise the price of any invasion attempt.
Public opinion surveys and expert assessments in China, meanwhile, suggested that while nationalist rhetoric remained strong, many citizens and policymakers were wary of the economic and human costs of a full‑scale conflict, reinforcing Beijing’s current preference for coercion short of open war even as the risk of miscalculation persists.
Israel-Hamas: A pulsing conflict
The war in Gaza was characterised by a “pulse” of violence and historic pauses.
The October ceasefire: A US-brokered deal (the “Trump-Netanyahu win”) took effect on October 10, 2025. It saw the release of the remaining 20 living hostages held by Hamas in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners.
The reality: While the guns fell silent in major cities, the year ended with Gaza in “controlled devastation.” Furthermore, June 2025 saw a brief but direct Israel-Iran war triggered by strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, requiring direct US military intervention to prevent a regional meltdown.
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