Kamala Harris has 56% chance of winning US presidential election, says latest forecast

Vice President Kamala Harris has a 56 per cent chance of winning the US presidential election, according to the latest forecast.

While Republican Party’s nominee Donald Trump led the election race for a long time against President Joe Biden, Harris flipped the lead after Biden quit the race and she took over as the Democratic Party’s challenger to Trump .

Now, Harris has a 56 per cent chance to win the presidency compared to 44 per cent of Trump, according to the forecast by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.

Even as Harris has higher chances Trump of winning the election, the race is set to boil down to a bunch of swing states .

Harris has higher chances but…

While the Decision Desk HQ-The Hill forecast says Harris has 56 per cent chances to win the presidential election, the forecast is a bit nuanced.

Unlike general elections in India or the United Kingdom, the US presidential elections are not nationwide elections where voters elect lawmakers and the party with the most seats wins. The US presidential election is based on the concept of electoral college .

Each state in the United States has a fixed number of electors — comparable to seats in Indian or UK elections. The candidate who wins most votes wins all the electors in the state. Together, there are 538 electors in all the US states and a candidate needs 270 to win. So, presidential campaigns are tailored so the candidates wins a bunch of states that takes their electors past the 270-mark.

This is where the catch lies in the forecast. While the Decision Desk HQ-The Hill forecast says Harris has 56 per cent chances to win the election, it says she is set to win 241 electors compared to Trump’s 2019 — way short of the majority-mark of 270.

Even as Harris has higher chances and is forecast to win more electors, she is short of the majority mark and the Decision Desk HQ-The Hill forecast further says that 78 electors would act as ’toss up’ and would decide the outcome.

In the US electoral parlance, a ’toss up’ election is one in which both sides stand a reasonable chance of winning and no one can be confidently predicted as a winner in advance.

Republicans forecast to flip Senate control

Even as Democrat nominee Harris’ chances of winning the presidential election are higher, the Decision Desk HQ-The Hill forecast says the party might lose the Senate.

Currently, of the 100 members, 47 are Democrats, 49 are Republicans, and four are Independents, according to the Senate website.

The Democrats are in control as four Independent senators are aligned with them and Harris further has the tie-breaking vote as she as Vice President of the United States serves as the President of the Senate.

As per the Decision Desk-The Hill forecast, the Republicans have 67 per cent chance to win the Senate and they have a 56 per cent chance to retain control of the House of Representatives.