As Independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr plans to quit, what it means for Harris & Trump?

Robert F Kennedy Jr, the Independent candidate with no chance to win the 2024 presidential election, is formally expected to exit the contest.

While his presence or absence in the race may appear to be meaningless at first, that’s not the case. The way supporters of Kennedy go may help make or break the fortunes of the two remaining candidates. As things stand, it appears that Trump is set to get a boost.

Kennedy has the support of 2.8 per cent of voters, according to the latest poll of polls by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill.

As Kenndy is much closely aligned to Trump than Harris and his Independent supporters are more likely to be conservatives or moderate Republicans, the voters aligned with him are most likely to switch to Trump than Harris. The fact that Kennedy is most likely going to endorse Trump will further bolster this thinking.

Multiple outlets, such as The New York Times and CNN, have reported that Kennedy may announce his exit from the race on Friday and endorse Trump. He is also reported to be vying for a Cabinet berth in case Trump wins the election.

There are strong indications that Kennedy may endorse Trump. His running mate, Nicole Shanahan, has said that the campaign is weighing two options: staying in the race and risk having a Harris presidency or supporting Trump.

“There’s two options that we’re looking at. One is staying in, forming that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris and [Tim] Walz presidency, because we draw votes from Trump or we draw somehow more votes from Trump. Or we walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump. We walk away from that and we explain to our base why we’re making this decision,” said Shanahan on Impact Theory podcast.

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RFK Jr’s VP Nicole Shanahan says the campaign is weighing two options, staying in “but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris presidency” or “we walk away right now & join forces with with Donald Trump and explain to our base why we're making this decision.”

pic.twitter.com/cBNu9S8HnO

— Vera Bergengruen (@VeraMBergen) August 20, 2024

How will Kennedy’s exit affect Trump or Harris?

Kennedy has been a favourite of Republicans than Democrats. His preference among Republicans has been higher than even among Independents.

In January, Kennedy had an 18 per cent positive rating among the Republicans, 4 per cent among Independents, and -25 among Democrats, according to a survey by NBC News.

By July, Kennedy had lost a great chunk of support among the Independents and Democrats but retained most of the Republicans’ support.

In July, Kennedy had an 11 per cent positive rating among Republicans, -18 among Independents, and -38 among Democrats, according to the NBC’s survey.

In an analysis of the survey findings, NBC Senior Political Editor Mark Murray noted that while potential share of Kennedy supporters is smaller than it used to be, it could be decisive in a close election.

The latest Decision Desk-The Hill poll of polls shows that Harris leads with 48.3 per cent against Trump’s 43.7 per cent and Kennedy’s 2.8 per cent.

DDHQ Polling Average Update: Full Field National

🟦 Kamala Harris (D): 48.3% (+4.6)
🟥 Donald Trump (R): 43.7%
🟪 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I): 2.8%

This average is based on 57 polls.https://t.co/DSExArNot6

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) August 21, 2024

Harris’ lead of 4.6 per cent is set to be eroded by half if Kennedy’s voters shift to Trump and they are bound to as there is little to no overlap between the support base of Harris and Kennedy. While Harris is a pro-choice, pro-vaccine, and an internationalist, Kennedy is on shaky grounds on abortion, opposes vaccines, and is an isolationist — ticking off all boxes of Trump’s far-right Make America Great Again (MAGA) lot.