The Horn of Africa is bracing for a potential return to large-scale conflict as tensions flare between Ethiopia’s federal army and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Despite a 2022 peace agreement intended to end a war that claimed at least 600,000 lives, the region remains a powder keg. Reports indicate a massive buildup of forces along internal borders, while Tigrayan civilians—haunted by recent memories of devastation—are fleeing to Addis Ababa in fear. The humanitarian situation is deteriorating rapidly; essential goods are scarce, subsidies have been cut, and the banking system is collapsing. Adding to the volatility is a bitter diplomatic rift between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and former ally Eritrea.