The unpredictable 'black swans' of 2012

The art of futurology is a tricky one to master because there’s almost always a black swan - an unpredicted and unpredictable event - that comes along and makes you look silly. Whilst I think we can be fairly sure that 2012 won’t bring jet packs and flying cars, some trends are already in motion and will have a big impact on how the tech world develops over the next twelve months. Here are five we think are important.

Smartphones, smartphones everywhere
The computer in your pocket is getting more and more powerful, with quad-core smartphones and high definition screens making these tiny devices both useful and usable. You can plough through email, surf the web, write documents and even put together presentations. The smartphone isn’t just for Angry Birds and Facebook anymore, it’s for business.

Some smartphones are already challenging netbooks in terms of power, usability and portability, but add a bluetooth keyboard and, for the iPhone, a Wingstand into the mix and you have the form factor of a netbook too. Motorola’s Atrix takes that idea even further, allowing users to slot their smartphone into laptop-like screen and keyboard for easier use.

And as the top-end of the smartphone market expands, so the bottom end gets cheaper, bringing smartphones within reach of more and more people. And for those who still can’t afford them, perhaps the option to lease for a year will be more attractive.

Throughout 2012, the smartphone is going to be the device and market to watch.

The appification of everything
The trend of calling a computer programme an ‘app’, short for ‘application’ began with with smartphones but has now expanded to take in desktop software too.

Apple’s App Store isn’t just about apps for your iPhone, iPad or iPod. Installed by default as part of a recent OS X update, it provides quick and easy access to all sorts of desktop software, from business apps like Keynote to games and Twitter apps (previously called ‘clients’).

Microsoft has followed suit and will be including its own app store in Windows 8, due for commercial release next year. Its success, however, will depend on how many people decide to upgrade to Windows 8. Many people who’ve already upgraded to Windows 7 simply might not bother withthe expense and hassle of yet another upgrade.

The aims of these app stores is simple: Make it quicker and easier for people to discover and buy software. But where there’s real value for users is in managing software, making it quick and painless to update your apps whenever needed. We can definitely expect to see more apps and more stores over the coming year.

Cyber-espionage and attacks
We’ve seen a lot of cyber-espionage and attacks in 2011, both political and industrial, and it’s only going to get worse. Tensions between the West and China are growing , not just because of overt cyber attacks, but also the fear that Chinese hardware manufacturers may be engineering backdoors into their products so that hackers can access sensitive information.

Business travellers are having to be especially careful to ensure that their business secrets aren’t stolen when they are abroad . They are also being warned against accepting USB memory sticks or cameras at trade events, lest these gives contain malware that could infect their computers.

But the cyber-threat isn’t just to commercial information. Stuxnet was a sophisticated and tightly targeted worm that was aimed at disrupting the Iranian nuclear programme by causing the uranium enriching centrifuges to spin out of control. Now it’s thought that another worm, Duqu, might be a precursor to another Stuxnet-like attack .

The stakes are high and, with so much to be won and lost, all sides are ramping up their investments in both attack and defence.

De-globalisation becomes a matter of survival
The Great Tohoku Earthquake and resultant tsunami in March was an horrific tragedy for Japan. Nearly 16,000 people died in the tsunami which reached over 40 m high in places. But the disaster did not only take lives, it also severely affected Japan’s economy, especially its auto industry. Toyota, for example, saw global car production seriously disrupted by parts shortages for the majority of the year.

Significant supply chain interruptions have also been seen in Thailand after devastating floods which started in July and continue to affect the country. Many hard disk drive manufacturers’ factories and suppliers were inundated and shortages in both parts and manufacturing capacity has had knock-on effects throughout the hardware industry. Intel, for example, has had to warn that revenue might take as much as a $1billion hit duethe shortage, which is predicted to continue into 2012 .

As companies start to see more high-impact low-probability events affect their bottom line, it’s going to become imperative for them to reassess globalisation, single points of failure in their supply chains and just-in-time strategies.

HTML5 is king
If there’s one thing that drives developers nuts it’s having to not just test websites on multiple browsers, but having to produce the same content for multiple platforms. Driven by the appification of everything, content producers will start to reassess their strategies and will look to HTML5 to solve their platform proliferation problems.

We’ve already seen the Financial Times walk away from Apple’s App Store , replacing its native iOS app with an HTML5 webapp . It’s unlikely that many content sites will follow as the risks of abandoning the App Store are too great, but there will be a blossoming of apps that use HTML5 to reduce the amount of cross-platform tinkering needed.

Services like PugPig already produce native iOS and Android wrappers for centrally created HTML5 content, reducing the cost of creating cross-platform apps. For many companies, this going to be the only cost-effective strategy on offer.

What trends do you think will be important in 2012? Let us know in the comments!