Currency ban: An analysis of social media sentiment around India's latest financial regulation

8 November was supposed to be a normal day. And it was. But as millions of Indians wrapped a normal workday and sat around the dinner table, TV news channels flashed an alert. PM Modi was to address the nation. Like every other Indian, I glued myself to the television set as well. What followed was a government announcement that in a matter of hours Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes would cease to be legal tenders. Out of curiosity, I wanted to know what digital Indians felt around the on-going chatter. Over the weekend, I ran several search queries across analytical tools to gauge what the kind of sentiment was buzzing online. Here are my findings. [caption id=“attachment_347015” align=“aligncenter” width=“640”] Despite the initial inconvenience, Twitter users have largely been positive about the move. Green dots to the right hand side quadrant indicate a positive sentiment around #Rs500Rs1000. Data on Sunday 13 November. Image: Twitter Sentiment Visualizer[/caption] Chatter online was largely backlash for the cash inconvenience  [caption id=“attachment_347008” align=“aligncenter” width=“640”] On the first day of the weekend, sentiment was largely negative around the currency ban. Image: Sentiment140[/caption] With widespread inconvenience, users felt execution could have been much better. Although emergency services were to continue to accept these large denominations, small businesses struggled with a surge in demand for returning the balance change. In short, the buzzing cash market was getting sluggish. And individuals depending on cash were having a tough time. If you thought this was supposed to result in backlash for the Prime Minister, well, that didn’t happen. For those with hard earned cash, venting out on social media is natural. On the other hand, those with wads of unaccounted cash lying at home would’ve probably disconnected from social media. They’d rather be sweating it out under stress or be running around trying to dump it in garbage bins, or let it flow in the Ganges. The key hashtags I considered were #BlackMoney, #Demonetisation, #NarendraModi, #RBI among several others. I used a mix of social media tools including Sentiment140 among a few more to make sense of the rise in chatter on social media. What I found was, on a larger scale, online sentiment was rather positive when it came to the efforts taken by the Prime Minister to curb black money. Most agreed this was necessary. And would help in weeding out the concern of unaccounted black money. Interestingly, #BlackMoney, #CurrencyBan and #NarendraModi throw contrasting sentiments. [caption id=“attachment_347012” align=“aligncenter” width=“640”] By Sunday evening, Narendra Modi was being tweeted out with positive sentiment at around 58 percent. Image: Sentiment140[/caption] On Saturday night (after day 4 of the currency ban), conversations were 57 percent negative for #BlackMoney. That was despite people welcoming the move. Soon it turned into complaints over how banks were executing the move. That seems surprising to begin with because curbing black money (as a derivative from corruption) is supposed to have been one of the most sought after concerns from the electorate during the elections. People feel differently towards the Prime Minister and the RBI This was one trend I was surprised over. One would assume that opinion towards the Prime Minister and the RBI would be aligned. Both were supposed to work in tandem to ensure smooth functioning and transitioning to the new cash market. However, from the analysis, it appears that the larger online base is swinging in favour of the Prime Minister, while the RBI could have done much better in ensuring that the transition was smooth. [caption id=“attachment_347014” align=“aligncenter” width=“640”] Conversation around the Reserve Bank of India were turning 56 percent negative. Image: Sentiment140[/caption] Essentially, what this meant was that users on Twitter supported the government on the issue of demonetisation, but had grave complaints with the banking system in terms of the execution of the plan. Many online users complained about how banks weren’t doing enough. A few tweets also were vocal about how banks were closing at 4 PM when they were supposed to stay open will 8 PM. A few tweets expressed their expectations from the RBI in taking action against banks that weren’t helping customers. A few also mentioned that banks were displaying notice boards that said only the specific bank customers could get currency notes. Such and similar operational hurdles got the sentiment to sway towards negative. https://twitter.com/yogeshaugust/status/797736354352427008 Execution makes a huge difference In such a nationwide move, execution makes all the difference. Disbursement of cash, access to ATMs with cash, as well as the arduous task of queuing up for withdrawal were key areas where the conversations were turning negative. In fact, shortage of cash and the issue of calibration of ATMs to read the new Rs 2000 notes were also contributors in the negative sentiment. Concerns about how notes would be scarce given the short notice didn’t help either. Since banks and ATMs were shut on the first day of the ban, users were sinking in the implications of the move. However, the next day, when banks and ATMs opened is when the backlash began. This continued through the weekend as well, when long queues outside banks and ATMs where a common sight. All through, there were some tweets that questioned the need for the Prime Minister to be travelling when there was a situation in the country. But largely, online sentiment still supported the demonetisation move.