AVG Predictions on 2010 Internet Security Threats

The past year has had its share of spam, phishing, botnet activity, and malware with cyber-criminals investing in more sophisticated and automated ways to run their operations. Security firm AVG is predicting that in 2010 the threat environment will witness higher volumes of web-threats and be even more transient, agile and organised.

The threats that will have significant impact on users in 2010 are:

• Cyber-criminals can now automatically create hundreds of thousands of unique pieces of malware a day, much of which has no unique signature and can bypass old-fashioned, signature-based virus detection software.
• In the coming year, cyber-criminals will, with increased sophistication, continue to make money via social engineering and phishing scams, trick users into providing, or steal personal details.
• To keep ahead of the computer security industry’s efforts to thwart their activities, cyber-criminals are now using “in the cloud” technologies in far more sophisticated and effective ways than most legitimate businesses.
• In 2010, cyber criminals will continue to improve the speed with which they are able to move their campaigns from domain to domain, server to server. In early 2009, AVG researchers reported that 60% of these poisoned web threats were active for less than a day and 75% for less than 30 days.
• Cyber-criminals exploit latest trends and topics that are gaining popularity on the internet by hijacking search results into clicks on links to their malicious web pages. Expect to see more highly targeted, convincing attacks with custom malware in 2010.
• Cyber-criminals exploit trust. With the rise of Web 2.0, attacks that impersonate social networking sites or spoof contacts from your “friends” list are more likely to be clicked on. It is likely we’ll see a great deal more of similar scams in 2010.
• Many users especially from amongst developing countries, who are amongst the growing millions who are getting connected to the Internet, still use pirated software that can’t be kept up to date with security patches. We expect to see a big increase in threats being delivered via emerging countries in 2010.
• As employment has taken a hard hit due to the economic crisis, it is likely that more people will be lured by the easy money of cyber-crime. Also, individuals desperate in search of earning opportunities are more likely to fall prey to bogus offers or disgruntled employees may breach official data that could fall into the wrong hands.
• Events in 2009 showed that many businesses simply weren’t properly protected. The success of the exploits used to penetrate and establish Conficker into business and enterprise networks early in 2009 was largely because of complacency.
• The good news is that reputable security vendors now provide full Internet security suites with multiple layers of protection. The majority of people that pay for security software now buy the full suite, complete protection solution instead of entry-level solutions. This trend continued through 2009, in spite of tougher economic times, and AVG expects it to be maintained in 2010.