China’s BYD set to overtake Tesla as the world's largest BEV maker, again

Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer BYD is on course to surpass Tesla in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales this year, with its market share expected to rise significantly, according to a report by Counterpoint Research.

This development highlights the evolving nature of the global EV market. In the second quarter, BYD’s BEV sales saw a nearly 21 per cent increase year-on-year, reaching 426,039 units. In contrast, Tesla’s deliveries for the same period dropped by 4.8 per cent, totalling 443,956 vehicles.

Last year, BYD’s overall production, which includes both battery-only and hybrid vehicles, exceeded 3 million units, outpacing Tesla’s 1.84 million cars for the second consecutive year. While BYD produced 1.6 million battery-only passenger cars and 1.4 million hybrids, Tesla remained the leader in BEV production alone.

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However, BYD lost its position as the top EV vendor to Tesla in the first quarter. Despite this, Counterpoint Research emphasized that China continues to be a dominant force in the BEV market, with BYD at the forefront. Chinese BEV sales are projected to be four times those of North America in 2024, with China maintaining over 50 per cent of the global BEV market share until 2027. By 2030, Chinese BEV sales are expected to exceed the combined sales of North America and Europe.

In response to the rising influence of Chinese EVs, the European Union recently announced additional tariffs on Chinese EV manufacturers to mitigate the threat to EU’s EV industry. BYD is likely to be hit with a 17.4 per cent tariff, SAIC to 38.1 per cent duty, and Geely will see a 20 per cent duty, on top of the standard 10 per cent duty that is already imposed on imported EVs. These provisional duties will be implemented starting July 4, unless ongoing discussions with Chinese authorities yield a resolution.

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EU hopes that its new tariffs will create a level playing field for European EV manufacturers, who are struggling to compete with the lower-priced Chinese imports. Counterpoint Research’s associate director, Liz Lee, suggested that these tariffs might drive Chinese automakers to focus on emerging markets like the Middle East and Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Australia and New Zealand.

Global BEV sales are anticipated to reach 10 million units in 2024, alongside the continued decline of internal combustion engine vehicles. This growth will be supported by efforts to enhance cost-efficiency and affordability for EVs and their batteries.