For West Indies, this World Cup comes at a time when their cricket is falling apart

Background

On October 18th 2014 the West Indies pulled out of their ODI tour of India due to a pay dispute between the players, their association and the board. The subsequent fallout from the tour abandonment threatens the very foundation of cricket in the region with the BCCI requesting $41.97 million in damages.

More superficially however Dwayne Bravo has lost the ODI captaincy and been dropped alongside Kieron Pollard. The West Indies Cricket Board has claimed the decision to drop two of the world’s leading ODI all-rounders is a decision based in form, in reality it appears as if Bravo and Pollard are being punished for their significant involvement in the tour abandonment.

Since the World Cup squad was named Chris Gayle and Sunil Narine have refused West Indies contracts, Pollard wasn’t even offered one and Bravo has formalised his two year absence from the Test team with a retirement. To compound their misery, Narine, initially named in the World Cup squad, has since withdrawn for fears of being called for chucking again.

On the pitch the team have played five ODIs since the India tour, and have lost four of them. The West Indies is a great cricketing region, but this World Cup has come at a time when their cricket is falling apart. Not united by national ties, the “West Indies” only exists in a cricketing sense, and as they head into a World Cup in turmoil, it’s not hyperbolic to ask whether this is the beginning of the end.

Squad: Jason Holder, Marlon Samuels, Sulieman Benn, Darren Bravo, Jonathan Carter, Sheldon Cottrell, Chris Gayle, Nikita Miller Denesh Ramdin, Kemar Roach, Andre Russell, Darren Sammy, Lendl Simmons, Dwayne Smith, Jerome Taylor.

Overview: Despite the underlying turmoil there remains enough individual talent in the West Indies squad for them to make progress in the tournament. They could conceivably exit at the Group Stage, but with a handful of match-winners they could also make it through to the knock-out stage and are then just three matches from glory.

Strongest XI: 1) Gayle 2) Simmons 3) Smith 4) Bravo 5) Samuels 6) Ramdin 7) Russell 8) Holder 9) Taylor 10) Roach 11) Benn. Unused: Jonathan Carter, Sheldon Cottrell, Nikita Miller, Darren Sammy

Strategy

Chris Gayle’s batting average of 18.7 since the beginning of 2013 is the worst for any top-seven batsman in the world who has played at least 20 innings. Gayle has scored just 449 runs in 24 innings in that period. However, Gayle remains one of the most destructive batsmen in the world. While he has struggled in ODI cricket he scored 77 and 90 in two T20 internationals against South Africa earlier this year to show that he still has the ball-striking ability that can win matches single-handedly.

It appears that Gayle remains unsure how to pace his innings in the longer, more undulating fifty-over format, but when the West Indies team is as weak and as inexperienced as this they cannot afford to drop their most dangerous player.

Dwayne Smith has also been struggling for form, but like Gayle, he is a destructive batsman and again on the basis that one good innings from him could win them a match he should be selected. With an ODI average of less than 20 from almost 100 matches, his rope however, is shorter than Gayle’s. If he fails to make an impact this World Cup could be the last we see of Smith in a West Indies shirt. Smith and Gayle are both prone to slow, stodgy starts and should be separated at the top by Lendl Simmons. Simmons remains one of the most underrated players in the West Indies.

The middle-order of Darren Bravo, Marlon Samuels and Denesh Ramdin basically picks itself and forms the core of the West Indies team. These are the players more likely to do well than Gayle, Simmons and Smith, but less likely to win matches single-handedly and more likely to make a heavy loss and respectable one. Bravo opted out of the tour of South Africa for personal reasons which has arguably done his reputation and standing more good than would’ve likely been achieved by being involved in the 4-1 series defeat.

Samuels hit two fifties in the series against South Africa and is possibly the West Indies most reliable batsmen. Ramdin, following a superb 2014, has also shown some grit lower down the order with the team in dire straits. Andre Russell is a dangerous pinch-hitter and given the right circumstances should certainly float up the order.

The West Indies batting is not bad, it could in fact be very good, but it’s a batting order mutually reliant on each other for the freedom to express themselves. If one or two fail, generally, they all fail.

Bowling is certainly the West Indies weaker suit. Russell has seemingly taken over from Darren Sammy as lower order hitter and useful bowler, although his bowling remains some way short of the canny containment of Sammy. The balance of the team will be benefitted if they make a choice between one and the other, rather than squeezing both of them in.

The absence of Narine is a body-blow to the West Indies hopes. While previously they could theoretically at least win matches with both bat and ball, now they will be relying on their batting to win the matches and their bowling to complete the job. Nikita Miller was the man called into replace Narine but it should be Sulieman Benn who should play. Benn, a tall spinner, may find the bouncier Australian pitches to his liking.

The pace trio is led by new captain Jason Holder. Holder has played just a handful of ODIs and although he has great promise as a bowler he is learning his captaincy trade by the day. In the absence of any non-tarnished, more experienced players to captain, Holder is something of a figure-head leader – he will need all the help he can get from the likes of Gayle, Samuels and Ramdin to keep the West Indies strategies intact.

He should be joined in the bowling attack by the dangerous, but volatile and potentially expensive pairing of Jerome Taylor and Kemar Roach.

Fixtures

February 16th: vs Ireland, Nelson (NZ) February 21st: vs Pakistan, Christchurch (NZ) February 24th: vs Zimbabwe, Canberra (Aus) February 27th: vs South Africa, Sydney (Aus) March 6th: vs India, Perth (Aus) March 15th: vs UAE, Napier (NZ)

The structure of the West Indies fixtures does not make their chances of qualifying for the quarter final easier. They are arguably in the group with the toughest non-big-eight nation, Ireland, and Ireland will pose the most serious threat to their qualification hopes. Their opening match against Ireland could therefore be pivotal, giving them little time to find their form.

Conditions in Australia should suit the West Indies more where there should be less movement in the air and off the pitch and the ball should come onto the bat more. However, two of their three matches in Australia are against arguably the strongest two teams in the group: India and South Africa. For a team desperate for just a couple of wins this also does their qualification chances no help.

Prediction: The winner of Ireland vs West Indies will qualify for the quarter finals and then exit at that stage.