Paris Olympics 2024: India projected to finish outside top-30 in medals tally; USA expected to top

With the Paris Olympics due to open this week, the United States go in as favourites to win the most medals. China are unlikely to overtake the USA in the overall medal count, but have a real chance to win more gold medals than the their historic rivals.

While the Olympic Games highlight great individual athletes which is measured in the medals won, it is also a surrogate for geo-politcal influence and national pride.

The United States are projected to win 112 medals overall — 39 gold, 32 silver, and 41 bronze. China, meanwhile, are forecast to win 86 overall — 34 gold, 27 silver, and 25 bronze.

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The forecast is made by Nielsen’s Gracenote Sports, which supplies statistical analysis and tools for leagues around the world. It also tracks major competitions involving Olympic sports leading up to the Summer Games.

The USA and China finished one-two in both categories at the pandemic-delayed Tokyo Olympics in 2021.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) does not compile medal rankings. Officially, medals tally is ranked based on the gold medals won by a nation. Gracenote, meanwhile, has computed its standings based on overall medals won.

If USA do top the standings, it would be the eighth consecutive time they would lead the medals tally at the Summer Games. The last time they were pipped to the top spot was the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona when a Unified Team, comprising athletes from former Soviet Union, finished four medals better off.

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The last Summer Olympics in which the United States did not top the gold-medal table was in 2008 in Beijing.

After the United States and China, the next in line with overall totals and gold totals are: Britain (63-17), France (60-27), Australia (54-15), Japan (47-13), Italy (46-11), Germany (35-11), Netherlands (34-16), South Korea (26-9).

The next places 11 to 20 are: Canada (21-7), Hungary (20-7), Brazil (18-8), Spain (18-5), Poland (17-3), Denmark (14-5), Turkey (14-4), New Zealand (14-4), Ukraine (13-2), Ethiopia (12-6).

It is followed by the 21 to 30 in: Kenya (12-5), Sweden (12-4), Belgium (12-4), Georgia (12-3), Uzbekistan (12-3), Switzerland (12-0), Iran (11-4), Ireland (10-2), Kazakhstan (10-2), Jamaica (10-1).

India, meanwhile, do not find a mention in Gracenote’s report. With the focus only on the top-30 countries in the projection report, India's 117-member contingent has not found a place.

At the Tokyo Olympics, Gracenote had predicted India would win 19 medals to finish 18th and pocket multiple medals in shooting. Instead, India won seven medals in all, none in shooting to finish 48th.

Hosts France expected to jump

Countries have historically seen a medal bump for being the hosts and that is projected to be the case this time also. France are expected to almost triple the number of gold medals they won in Tokyo.

This time the medals will be inlaid with a tiny piece of the Eiffel Tower.

Host nations spend more heavily for a home Olympics, and the home crowds also help with athletes competing in familiar surroundings.

Conversely, Japan, who won a record 58 overall medals three years ago, and 27 gold, are expected to slip this time.

The unknown factor is the presence of Russian and — to a lesser extent — Belarusian athletes. They have been absent from most international competitions over the last two years because of the war in Ukraine. And, by order of the IOC, any medals those athletes win are not to be included in any medal table.

More than 300 Russian athletes competed three years ago in Tokyo. This time the total may be just a dozen or so.