Paris Masters: Novak Djokovic’s invincibility must be blamed for his rivalry against Roger Federer becoming too predictable

How do you beat the unbeatable? That was a question many asked themselves whenever they were pitted against Roger Federer at his peak. Defeating him was an idea so wild and unimaginable that only a few dared to believe it was possible, and fewer still developed a remotely feasible game plan for it. But since he was unbeatable, or at least close to it (outside clay), those game plans never really worked. [caption id=“attachment_5501131” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Serbia’s Novak Djokovic celebrates after beating Roger Federer. AFP[/caption] For the past few years Federer has been at the other end of the spectrum, trying desperately to think of a way to tame the monster that is Novak Djokovic. Federer is not the only one, of course; Djokovic has spent the better part of this decade (minus 2017) laying the woodwork on the entire ATP tour. Counters to his rock-solid game have been almost non-existent, with Rafael Nadal’s skills on clay being the only exception. Since they are the flag-bearers of all things defiant and eternal, Federer and Nadal have seen their battles against The Unbeatable take on greater significance than any other story in the sport. And for the rest of the world, watching two GOATs try to solve something that has seemingly no answer has been a fascinating experience — irrespective of whether they are tennis fans or not. So it was that as Federer got ready to take on Djokovic for the 47th time, in the Paris Masters semi-final, Bercy assumed the status of must-see TV. Never mind that Federer had lost seven of his last nine matches against the Serb. Or that the last time the two had met, in Cincinnati earlier this year, the Swiss looked like a pale imitation of a top 100 player and practically erred himself out of the match. No, this was still Federer vs Djokovic. The current GOAT vs the future GOAT. The Artist vs The Invincible. The best rivalry of the decade from a shot-making perspective (and possibly the best of all time). You had to be bonkers to think it didn’t deserve three hours of your time on a Saturday evening. The match did end up delivering on the hype, but it also made us marvel at how every single contest can have an entire cycle of its own. I may be reaching here, but it was hard to shake off the feeling that Djokovic’s win on Saturday was staged in three distinct phases, or Acts, which unfolded almost exactly the way the Federer-Djokovic rivalry has over the years. At the start both men looked cagey, almost as though they were feeling each other out before truly investing themselves in the proceedings. Federer insisted on going for safe serves out wide in the deuce court. He also refused to come over on his backhands no matter how strong the temptation; at one point he was slicing over 70 percent of them. Djokovic, on his part, was targeting the Federer backhand with robotic intent, but otherwise hitting measured shots that didn’t betray any urgency. Think back to those early Federer-Djokovic contests before 2009, when Federer insisted on playing his normal game against Djokovic and relied on sheer consistency to outwit the Serb. Djokovic’s only answer back then was to target the Federer backhand every chance he got, even if he wasn’t truly attacking that wing. But towards the end of the first set on Saturday, Djokovic started turning the tables. There wasn’t a marked difference in his game; he was doing the same things as he was earlier, but just being a little better with his execution. He started running around his backhand to hit inside-out forehands that stretched Federer wide on the backhand side and opened up the court. With multiple options at his disposal from that advantageous position, he then had little trouble putting the Swiss on the run and forcing errors out of him. Djokovic’s crosscourt forehand was particularly effective in this period. If there’s one thing that Federer isn’t brilliant at, it is hitting forehands while running to his right. And Djokovic took full advantage of that weakness as he went a set up and started regularly threatening the Federer serve in the second. Does that remind you of anything? Djokovic’s shakedown of the pecking order in the early 2010s had a lot to do with the newfound precision on his forehand wing. The consistent depth and power he generated off it kept tying everyone up in knots. He even punctuated the changing of the guard with that unforgettable crosscourt forehand return winner to save match point at the 2011 US Open. The third and final act in Paris was possibly the most thrilling of them all, but paradoxically it may have also been the most predictable. Federer was pushed to the end of his tether as he kept trying to stave off Djokovic’s attempts to break him. So he answered the way only he can: by bringing all of his tricks and experience to bear on his opponent. He lunged, stretched and scrambled to get every one of Djokovic’s strikes back in play, but he also took the initiative with his serve and forehand whenever he got a half-chance. Gone were the safe slices and wide serves from the first set; he was now hammering big serves down the T, and powering backhand winners down the line. All of that helped him tie the match at one set all, and for much of the third he was at his imperious best. If you’re looking for parallels from the past, you’ll be instantly drawn to the sporadic flashes of brilliance that Federer has displayed in his recent matches against Djokovic. The two Dubai encounters in 2014 and 2015, the Wimbledon and Indian Wells finals in those same years, even the round-robin clash at London in 2015 — for short bursts during all of those matches, Federer seemed like the only player in the world capable of denting Djokovic’s aura of invincibility. But we know how that story ends, which is what made the third act in Paris so predictable. When he is faced with a red-hot opponent who is finding all the lines, Djokovic just shrugs his shoulders and opts to bide his time. He knows that sooner or later the opponent will falter, exactly as Federer has done in so many of their recent matches. In Paris, the stumble came in the deciding set tiebreaker. With the finish line in sight, Federer suddenly couldn’t find the court with his serve OR his forehand; at 1-2 he made a double fault and an unforced error to hand over the match to the Serb. On the surface, this defeat may seem like a step backwards for Federer. He tried a lot of different things in the match. He played within himself at the start, not giving Djokovic much pace to work with. He eschewed the topspin backhand for vast stretches, opting instead to keep the ball low. And when nothing seemed to be working, he went back to his trusted tactics of serving big and taking the ball on the rise. Despite all of those tactical changes and mid-match adaptations, he still came away as the loser. That has got to hurt. But upon closer inspection, this match may have done more to boost Federer’s confidence than any match he has played since Wimbledon. For one thing, his forehand finally seems to have stopped misbehaving. For another, he saved all 12 break points he faced, which would have been a ridiculously impressive stat even if he wasn’t playing against the greatest returner that ever lived. And perhaps most importantly, he didn’t seem rattled at the prospect of facing Djokovic, the way he was in Cincinnati; as his winner count of 54 shows, he was playing cleanly enough to hit through even the best defender on the planet. Considering he had entered this tournament primarily for match practice, Federer couldn’t really have asked for more. He’s in good shape going into London, and has to be considered the second favorite to lift the trophy. And what about the overwhelming favourite? To be honest, there’s very little that can be said about Djokovic’s all-encompassing excellence that hasn’t already been said before. While Federer was forced to play out of his skin just to stay afloat in the match, Djokovic calmly held his ground at the other end and waited for the inevitable. The Swiss hit quite a few winners, but he just couldn’t get past Djokovic’s defenses on the most crucial points. He was made to play one, two, three, sometimes even four extra shots, and when he approached the net to end the torture he was passed with ease. Even the distractions from the pro-Federer Parisian crowd couldn’t make any holes in Djokovic’s wall of resistance. After a brief exchange of angry gestures at the end of the second set, the Serb was composure personified in the crucial third. Just like his epic win over Nadal at Wimbledon this year, Djokovic never seemed likely to lose the match. He, and all of us watching, knew that he had a higher gear waiting in the wings, which would be unleashed the moment things got really troublesome. And as it turned out, that higher gear was never needed, because his base level of play was good enough to vanquish his GOAT opponent. How do you beat a player as self-assured and self-sufficient as that? It’s simple, you don’t. There’s a reason he is called The Unbeatable.