Formula One: Ferrari vs Mercedes, Red Bull Racing’s gamble with Honda and other talking points from pre-season tests

The official pre-season tests are like a trailer for the season ahead. The tests offer a glimpse of the star cast for the upcoming season – the heroes, zeroes and even the sidekicks. They offer an indicative storyline that fans could expect during the 9-month long season, but then again, the results from the tests could be fictitious, bear no resemblance to actual performance and be purely coincidental.

Before we get to the storylines from the eight days of the official pre-season test of the 2019 Formula 1 season, it would be imperative to understand the various metrics that could be used to classify a test as positive or negative. As with every motorsport category, lap time is the ultimate benchmark used for comparative performance between teams and drivers. However, there are several variables that make an apple-to-apple comparison difficult.

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What tyres were used on the said lap? How many laps old were the tyres? On what lap from the series of laps was the time set? What were the fuel loads? What day and time of the day was the time registered? Yes, following a Formula 1 pre-season test can be more confusing and complex than an actual race. However, the most universal method of decoding a fast lap is by adjusting a lap time with tyre and fuel off-sets.

Pirelli, Formula 1’s official tyre supplier, shared data regarding the difference in performance between their various tyre compounds. This data makes the application of the tyre off-set easier. However, adjusting a lap time to possible fuel loads is where a certain amount of guesswork is included and this is where the ‘on what lap’ from the series of laps information comes handy.

Teams running maximum mileage with minimum reliability issues is also an indicator of a strong test. After all, teams run an average of 5,000 kms in testing. Historically, it has also been believed that teams rarely show their true pace in pre-season testing. But in the modern era of limited pre-season testing, gone are the days when the teams could sandbag their way through testing to fool the opposition. This is also why a lap other than a team/driver’s fastest lap could offer a better clue to performance.

Ferrari vs Mercedes

As with the last two seasons, testing indicated that 2019 too could be all about the two big automobile giants fighting for championship glory. Sebastian Vettel’s fastest lap-time (1:16:221) was only three thousands of a second faster than Lewis Hamilton’s time – a 1:16:224. The general belief from the tests was that Ferrari was the faster car, through qualifying and race simulations. However, it was Mercedes that clocked higher mileage (approx. 200 laps more) and suffered from lesser reliability issues.

Which makes us wonder if the Ferrari is fast, but fragile? Vettel’s much-publicised crash was down to a rim failure, while the team suffered from other electrical and exhaust related issues, the former forcing the Italian team to conclude their testing program prematurely. However, one could argue that this is what testing is for, to iron out issues and it is possibly easier to make a fast car more reliable than make a reliable car go faster.

In the case of Mercedes, the reigning world champion team is rumoured to be attempting a two-specification approach to their racing car this season. Such an approach would allow the team to run a car that is more adaptive in nature to the characteristics of different circuits. This is possibly why their car from the two tests differed drastically in every way. However, will such an approach backfire or only strengthen Mercedes’ domination over the sport as they aim for their historic and never-achieved-before sixth consecutive title-double in Formula 1?

Red Bull Racing

Red Bull Racing’s gamble with Honda seems to have paid off, that’s the first impressions from the pre-season tests. Honda, who are now in their fifth year in the current hybrid-turbo era, seem more reliable than before and this was evident throughout the test as Red Bull Racing-Honda’s mileage was more than what Honda could achieve with any other team in the past. If Honda’s power is within the range of what Renault could manage in 2018, then Red Bull Racing and their fans could be in for a treat this season. But will they be able to clinch a shock win?

Although judging Red Bull Racing’s performance in the pre-season tests isn’t as straightforward. First, the team didn’t manage a low-fuel + soft-tyre qualifying simulation run as their rivals. Second, the team couldn’t manage to conclude their race simulation runs. Third, Pierre Gasly’s heavy crash in the second pre-season test, one that cost the team valuable track time due to unavailability of spares.

However, Red Bull Racing is expected to be closer to the top-two teams in 2019 and this can be attributed to two assumptions. First, Toro Rosso’s rookie driver Alexander Albon’s lap time that was only six tenths off Vettel’s fastest. If the Toro Rosso could go as fast, what could the Red Bull Racing at the hands of Max Verstappen car manage? Second, Red Bull Racing’s in-season car development program, one that is regarded to be stronger than Ferrari and Mercedes’.

Finally, are Red Bull Racing and Honda consciously working on using five power units through the season instead of the rule-mandated three? By doing so, the team will pick up engine penalties at certain races of the season and it won’t be too difficult to guess which ones these could be. The advantage being that Red Bull-Honda will be able to seek more performance gains at key moments during the season.

For 2019 and after the pre-season tests, it seems more likely that the ‘Big Three’ in Formula 1 will remain. Although, we must express our disappointment of missing out on the excitement of seeing Red Bull Racing battle the midfield teams and cars, where the competition definitely seems to be higher.

The Midfield

Expectedly so, the ‘midfield’ (also fondly and unofficially referred to as ‘Formula 1.5’) is tightly matched. In fact, depending on how you interpret the data, either Haas or Renault could end up as the ‘best of the rest’ from the test. But here too, the rest of the midfield teams aren’t too far behind, with only a few tenths separating them. Basis data from the test, around half a second is what could decide if your favourite midfield team/driver will be disqualified in Q1 or make it to Q3.

While Haas and Alfa Romeo seem to be making the most of their partnership with Ferrari, Toro Rosso seem to be benefiting more from the new structure for the Red Bull-owned teams. Basically, they too are buying more car parts from Red Bull Racing than ever before. But this customer-manufacturer relationship is being played within the rules. Renault’s attempt to get closer to the ‘Big 3’ seems to have gone in vain, at least basis testing form. On the other hand, Mclaren’s reliable show in testing is good for the former world champion team as they strive hard to reclaim their glory in the sport. The Woking-based team topped the testing timesheets on two of the eight days of testing.

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Racing Point, the team with a hero-to-zero-to-hero campaign last season, were low on testing mileage but admitted to be focussing on their major upgrade package planned for Australia. The mid-season change in ownership did impact the team’s campaign in 2018. Let’s hope that the impact is minimal for 2019. And finally, Williams, who embarrassingly missed two and half days of the first pre-season test, did well to make up for lost mileage. In fact, the team suffered minimal issues in testing, but their bigger problem was that they showcased lack of pace too. Again, all indications from testing say that Williams will bring about the rear of the grid in Australia. The bigger embarrassment could be their pace differential to the rest of the grid.

Speed

Formula 1’s revised aero regulations for 2019 was expected to slow the cars down by up to two seconds per lap, a development that brought displeasure among fans and drivers alike. However, if lap times from testing are anything to go by, the teams and their engineers have (expectedly!) worked hard to claw back all the lost downforce and speed. The fastest time from the 2019 pre-season tests was less than a tenth slower than Hamilton’s pole position lap at the 2018 Spanish Grand Prix. As the season progresses, one would expect the cars to only go faster.

And for those of you who choose on-track action over outright speed, Kevin Magnussen had good news on offer when he admitted that following a car around a lap was easier than before and this should aid on-track action. Now can we fast forward to the qualifying session of the 2019 Australian Grand Prix already?