F1 testing: Mercedes still team to beat, while Mclaren-Honda's new team stuck in a rut

After twelve days of running across three tests, the curtain has come down on Formula One’s pre-season. The focus is now squarely on the season-opening Australian Grand Prix, as the next time the cars run in anger on track will be in Friday practice for the Melbourne race.

So what have we learned over winter testing and who stands where heading into the maiden race of the 2015 campaign? It is nigh on impossible to discern the definitive pecking order from pre-season testing. There are just too many variables at play. But, having said that, the off-season running around the Spanish circuits of Jerez and Barcelona does throw up enough clues that make it possible to divine a few broad conclusions:

Mercedes out in front:

Mercedes remain the team to beat. After a dominant 2014 during which the team claimed 16 wins from 19 races, there are indications that Mercedes have pulled further ahead of the opposition.

The reigning champions made a low-key start to their winter test programme, choosing to rack up the miles rather than extract performance from their new W05 in a bid to iron out the reliability niggles that hampered – if hampered is the right word – their 2014 campaign.

Indeed, the team completed 6,120.5 km of running in total across the three tests. They only fully flexed their muscles over the final four days of testing and hadn’t topped a session all winter until the second day of that test. Rosberg’s benchmark on that day was a blistering 1 minute 22.792 – the fastest time recorded in testing overall – a full 1.2 seconds quicker than his nearest challenger.

But, the performance they unleashed even when running more conservatively is sure to have sent shivers down the collective spines of the opposition.

On the final day of the second test, Nico Rosberg produced a lap that was within three-tenths of a second of the best set by Romain Grosjean. But – and this is the significant bit – Rosberg set his time on the medium compound tyres which Pirelli estimate are 1.5-2 seconds slower than the supersofts which Grosjean used to set his benchmark time.

While the several variables at play make it difficult to pin Mercedes’ advantage down to the last tenth, the pace of the Silver Arrows heading into the season-opener looks formidable indeed.

Williams – reacquiring the winning habit

Quietly confident is how one would characterize Williams heading into the Melbourne season-opener. The team returned to fighting at the sharp end of the field last year and emerged as Mercedes’ closest challengers towards the end of the season. But after a decade in the doldrums, the former champions had lost that winning habit and found themselves having to reacclimatize to life at the top. They were not as well-drilled as they should have been and operational and strategic errors in some cases cost them the win.

They have looked far more assured and, under the stewardship of Pat Symonds who has imposed a sense of order since taking over as technical director in 2013, have gone about their winter programme in an unruffled manner. The priority for the team – who were content to spend much of the winter near the bottom of the timesheets – has been very much on tightening the operational side of things over the hunt for performance.

They dedicated an entire day’s running to pit-stop practice, for instance, and wound up early on three of the final four days of testing because they had run through all they needed to do. This indicates a team confident of the package at their disposal and not needing to set headline lap-times to validate their optimism.

They did show their hand in the final test and set the fastest time on two of the four days. But while they may not be able to mount a sustained challenge to Mercedes’ might, they could most certainly pick up a few wins this season.

McLaren-Honda: An iconic partnership rekindled with a whimper

Things couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start for McLaren and Honda as the two rekindle an iconic partnership that once dominated Formula One. The squad failed to get any meaningful running under their belt with their programme hindered by recurring problems with the new Honda turbo-hybrid power unit.

McLaren-Honda in total logged just 1,750.9 km of running, the lowest of anyone, compared to Mercedes who completed by 6,120.5 km to top the mileage charts. McLaren’s winter woes were further compounded by a testing accident for Fernando Alonso, which knocked the Spaniard unconscious and sidelined him from the final test.

Problems were only to be expected, though, as Honda play catch up to rival engine manufacturers who have had a season’s worth of experience honing the complex hybrid power units. Preoccupied with solving the numerous gremlins with their power unit, McLaren and Honda are nowhere close to exploiting the full potential of the MP4 30. They have already fallen a long way behind rivals and are braced for a tough time in the opening series of flyaway races.

Ferrari – ready to prance?

With a new team boss at the helm, a new world champion behind the wheel, a new president at the top and a general purging of the ranks, 2015 marks a break from the past for Ferrari. In keeping with this, the James Allison-penned SF15-T could also be the car that allows the Scuderia to break their recent run of dismal results.

The new challenger appears to be a genuine step-up from last year’s ill-handling and unloved F14-T that scored just two podiums as the sport’s most successful team endured their first winless season since 1993.

The 2015 car, even though it isn’t a match for the Mercedes, has shown a decent turn of speed while the team have also made significant progress with the engine. But perhaps most significantly, the drivers seem happy with the car. Kimi Raikkonen, who in particular struggled with last season’s car, has described the new challenger as a “completely different story.”

Faster and stronger:

The 2015 cars are already much faster and far more reliable than their predecessors. Teams were still getting to grips with the complex new hybrid power units this time last year and the total mileage logged this year has been significantly higher. All teams put together logged 41,141.9 km of running in winter testing this year compared to 36,978.6 km last year, despite two fewer teams running this winter.

The cars are also quicker as engine manufacturers have unlocked more performance from their engines while aerodynamicists have made gains in downforce.

The fastest lap in pre-season testing – Nico Rosberg’s 1:22.792– is nearly 2.5 seconds faster than Hamilton’s pole-position time from last year. Further underlining the progress made over the winter, Rosberg’s testing benchmark was set in cooler weather with lower track temperatures while Hamilton’s pole-position time was set in May.

The relentless pace of development in Formula One is truly astounding.